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K-Shaped Recovery A K-shaped recovery occurs when, following a recession, different parts of the economy recover at different rates, times, or magnitudes. This is in contrast to an even, uniform recovery across sectors, industries, or groups of people. A K-shaped recovery leads to changes in the structure of the economy or the broader society as economic outcomes and relations are fundamentally changed before and after the recession. This type of recovery is called K-shaped because the path of different parts of the economy when charted together may diverge, resembling the two arms of the Roman letter "K." Implications COVID has…
06 April, 2021
Economic crisis
K-shaped recovery- Equitable access post COVID Introduction A recent Pew Research Report shows that India’s middle class may have shrunk by a third due to the novel coronavirus pandemic while the number of poor people earning less than ?150 per day more than doubled. The Pew report also warned that the situation may actually be worse than estimated because of worsening inequalities. International organisations like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the International Labour Organization have also warned about rising inequalities in several countries including India due to the pandemic. Made worse now Inequalities in India have been…
06 April, 2021
Economic crisis
The food subsidy bill- Need to be revamped Rising subsidy bill The Economic Survey, tabled in Parliament in January, rightly flagged the issue of a growing food subsidy bill, which, in the words of the government, “is becoming unmanageably large.” Food subsidy, coupled with the drawal of food grains by States from the central pool under various schemes, has been on a perpetual growth trajectory. During 2016-17 to 2019-20, the subsidy amount, clubbed with loans taken by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) under the National Small Savings Fund (NSSF) towards food subsidy, was in the range of ?1.65-lakh crore…
11 March, 2021
Economic crisis
Analysis of COVID-19 situation in 2021 The course of the coronavirus pandemic in the new year presents a picture of contrasts, with some rich countries running out of vaccines, experiencing a tide of new cases and deaths, and poorer countries going without access to vaccination, while India reports a case decline. Vaccine hesitancy may even be wasting precious vials in some States. Amidst suggestions that the worst is over, the Home Ministry has proposed further relaxations in the protocols for public activity from February, including occupancy levels in cinema theatres, holding of exhibitions and access to swimming pools. This will…
29 January, 2021
Economic crisis
Financing economic recovery Context: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a deep socioeconomic impact across Asia and the Pacific. The dwindling revenue and increasing expenditure pose a unique challenge to the administrations. Due to the continued lockdown measures and restricted borders, countries in Asia and the Pacific have been experiencing sharp drops in foreign exchange inflows due to declines in export earnings, remittances, tourism and FDI. Countries are having to inject trillions of dollars for emergency health responses and fiscal packages. Steps taken: The United Nations is steering an initiative called the Financing for Development in the Era of COVID-19 and…
07 September, 2020
Economic crisis
World Bank may forecast steeper India contraction The World Bank on Wednesday indicated that it may further lower its GDP projections for India and said critical reforms in key areas such as health, labour, land, skills and finance were needed to come out stronger from the COVID-19 crisis. The World Bank, had in May, projected that the Indian economy would contract by 3.2% in FY 2020-21 and rebound slowly in the next financial year. ‘Further challenges’ “Further challenges have emerged in recent weeks which are likely to weigh on the prospects in the near term. These risks include the virus…
20 August, 2020
Economic crisis
Ominous signals: on the slowdown of India's economy Introduction India’s economy is in a severe slowdown that is only going to get worse in a pandemic-stricken world. Three months after Finance Ministry mandarins prognosticated that India’s growth slowdown had bottomed out, the latest economic data has belied that prediction. GDP estimates # Crucially, the GDP growth estimates for the January-March quarter and the full fiscal year barely reflect the impact of the public health crisis and the stringent lockdowns, which were imposed nationwide only from March 25. # The NSO’s estimates show fourth-quarter and fiscal 2019-20 growth slumped to 3.1%…
02 June, 2020
Economic crisis
Lockdown syndrome: On the virus-induced economic crisis Introduction Official data capturing the economic impact of the nationwide lockdown are starting to pour in slowly. The country’s industrial output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), contracted by 16.7% in March. This is in contrast to a growth rate of 2.7% witnessed during the same month last year. Economic crisis The sharp fall can largely be explained by the nationwide lockdown that was imposed by the Centre in the last week of the month. The manufacturing sector, which witnessed a contraction of about 20%, was the worst hit among…
15 May, 2020
Economic crisis
A war-like state and a bond to the rescue-Consol Bonds By, Rangarajan Mohan Kumaramangalam is an angel investor and a working president of the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee Introduction As India’s ominous COVID-19 curve stretches further, urgent attention needs to be paid to an economy that is teetering on the edge. There are a few who seem to believe that there are ways and means to provide this stimulus without breaking the bank as it were. As we spend more time in a national lockdown or quasi-lockdown situation, I believe that austerity measures and reallocations notwithstanding, we will definitely need…
07 May, 2020
Economic crisis
Covid-19 and Economic shocks Part of: GS-III- Economy (PT-MAINS-PERSONALITY TEST) Steep fall in crude oil prices. Recently, May futures for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude has plunged below zero and Brent crude futures have also witnessed a steep decline. A negative price implies that a seller would have to pay the buyer to hold the oil to be supplied. Causes: The unprecedented plunge in the particular futures contract could be partly as a technical anomaly given the way future contracts work. However, there has also been a constant and steep fall in the oil prices. The price war between the key producers Saudi Arabia…
23 April, 2020
Economic crisis
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