The main planks in a counter-China policy

The main planks in a counter-China policy

By, M.K. Narayanan, a former National Security Adviser

Context:

- The situation along the China-India border in the Ladakh region is still tense. The disengagement process is proving difficult, and the military meetings have not resulted in any demonstrable progress regarding troop disengagement/de-escalation.

- China seems intent on managing the ground situation to its advantage, and bring about a realignment of the LAC.

Details:

- India needs to analyze Chinese objectives behind its incursions along the LAC, to avoid making a strategic miscalculation during a difficult period. Making sense of China’s actions would be critical for India’s response.

Military option:

- The author argues that despite repeated incursions by China along the LAC, it would be a mistake to think that China is preparing for a conflict over territory. The author suggests that India should not be taken in by Western propaganda about China’s territorial ambitions and should not presume an imminent war based on the following reasons.

- China is well aware that it cannot be certain whether it will emerge a victor from an all-out conflict with India. With this uncertainty, China would never attempt a military confrontation.

- China has set itself two big targets in the form of Made in China 2025 and China Standards 2035. China cannot and will not jeopardise its future targets by a military confrontation with India.

- Made in China 2025 seeks to engineer a shift for China from being a low-end manufacturer to becoming a high-end producer of goods. It is a key industrial policy for industrial development in China through which China aims at becoming a major manufacturing power by the year 2025.

- The China Standards 2035 plan will lay out a blueprint for China’s government and leading technology companies to set global standards for emerging technologies like 5G internet, the Internet of Things (IoT), and artificial intelligence, among other areas. This will allow China to become a global leader in high-tech innovation.

- The author argues that India’s strategic thinkers and planners must keep this in mind while drawing up plans to counter China’s actions along the border regions.

- However, India should remain prepared for any eventuality and should urgently implement the plans to set up the Mountain Strike Corps divisions. This move is bound to deter China far more than the stockpiling of state-of-the-art weapons.

Non-military options:

- Although maintaining a strong military is important, even more important would be to know when or how to use it. With a country such as Pakistan, the military option is more often than not the most suitable one, however, with countries such as China, one has to consider a variety of options.

- India should consider the ‘subtler tools’ of power available to it, rather than only considering the military option. India may well find non-military tools not only more cost-effective but also less risky.

Diplomatic offensive:

- Exploiting the current widespread opposition to China, India must embark on a diplomatic offensive to create international opinion in its support regarding border violations.

- A diplomatic offensive, involving the government, business leaders, persons of international standing, etc., can achieve a great deal in convincing international opinion that India is right and China is wrong, as also in conveying a message about India’s peaceful intentions vis-à-vis China’s expansionist ambitions.

Nurturing relations:

- India should consider building bilateral relations with countries with a view to draw their specific attention to China’s aggressive policies and designs.

- Though countering China’s moves to ‘buy’ influence will not be easy, India could use developmental and aid routes to help countries and help win their trust.

- India can upgrade its technical aid programme to help countries across Asia and Africa.

- Such programmes not only provide an enduring link between India and these countries but also help contrast India’s ‘untied aid’ with that of countries such as China whose aims are political and economic subjugation.

- India’s involvement with the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) could also help India. India’s relationship with NAM needs to be revitalised.

- India must pay particular attention to relations with countries in its neighbourhood, such as Nepal and Bangladesh, and allies such as Iran and Vietnam, relations with whom have taken a back seat with India being more intent on strengthening relations with the West, especially the U.S., and bodies such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).

- Smaller countries of Asia, which constantly face China’s aggressive interference in their internal affairs, have not received much support from India, and this needs India’s attention.

Effective messaging:

- To effectively counter China’s offensive across the world India must also overhaul its ‘messaging’ capacity. Given that in today’s world social media plays a dominant role, sustained messaging has become critical.

- It should make greater use of technology to send across its message and ideas to people and countries in its vicinity and across the globe, highlighting its peaceful intentions in stark contrast to China’s aggressive policies and tactics.

A united face:

- India’s true strength is its unity in diversity. A truly united and resilient India is the best antidote to China’s attempts to humble India. The impact of a united India will be far greater than establishing closer links with the U.S. or the West.

Soft power:

- India derives strength from its spiritual, religious and cultural attributes, which are a part of its civilisational heritage. India attaches significant value to reaching out to different religions.

- India has always reached out to the Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, with no strings attached. In recent years, possibly with a view to appeasing China, India has somewhat distanced itself from the Dalai Lama, which has, without doubt, been a mistake that needs to be rectified.

- Restoring the Dalai Lama to the same level of eminence in India’s official thinking should be an important plank in India’s anti-China policy.

- Simultaneously, India should also make efforts in propagating ‘Himalayan Buddhism’ which China has been seeking to subvert. India’s credentials here far outweigh that of China’s and should produce excellent dividends. It needs to become a key plank in India’s ‘forward policy’.