Serological survey of ICMR

Serological survey of ICMR
Context

The results of the ICMR’s third serological survey to ascertain the spread of COVID-19 show that nearly one in five Indians — about 270 million — may have been infected.

Serological Survey

A serological survey is conducted to assess the prevalence of a disease in a population. It is done by detecting the presence of specific antibodies that are produced against the virus.
A serological survey includes the IgG Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) test. It estimates the proportion of the population exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Results of serological survey

However, what is known so far is that compared to August — when data for the second serological survey was announced — there has been a three-fold rise in infections.
There has also been a five-fold rise (in percentage terms) of the infection in those aged 10-17 years.
The third edition also included a serological survey of doctors, nurses and paramedical staff, revealing that nearly 25% — significantly above the national average — had been infected.
Experts of various hues point to the declining trend in infections since September, and the absence of multiple peaks in coronavirus cases as a pointer to the spread being far wider and speeding up ‘herd immunity.

Herd immunity

A state when a significant proportion of people in a locale have been infected, thereby retarding future spread

Way ahead

This survey nor any city-wide survey has evaluated how long antibodies persist and if certain virus mutant variants can overcome the protection from antibodies.
Such surveys must shift focus to asking more granular questions:
- Should the rise in spread among teenagers and children mean that they be considered for vaccination earlier than scheduled?
- Should companies accelerate trials to test protection in children?
- Should the rise in rural India — the survey is designed in a way to sample more villages than urban pockets — mean that they be given vaccines earlier?

Conclusion

It would be wrong to derive comfort from this situation.
The ICMR emphasises that the results point to a significant number still potentially vulnerable, underscoring the need to be vaccinated and continuing with distancing and masking up.
The ICMR and the government health facilities must coordinate with a broader spectrum of specialists to investigate questions that can be used to guide and modify vaccination policy.

Source: TH

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