DAILY NEWS ANALYSIS
01 May, 2020
5 Min Read
Part of: GS-III- Economic data (PT-MAINS-PERSONALITY TEST)
Output at India’s core sector contracted by 6.5% in March, Commerce Ministry data show, reflecting the early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent nationwide lockdown.
Important Points
Notes PT: Coal was the only core sector which saw some growth, with output up 4%. The largest component of the index — refinery production — also dipped by only 0.5%.
Gov. Efforts
“Several of the core sector industries were given exemptions under the lockdown. Electricity and steel are continuous processes and have not been stopped. But movement of goods faced major restrictions, so it could be that they reduced production as much as possible to deal with reduced demand,” said eminent economist Pronab Sen, a former chief statistician of India.
Future predictions
Going forward to April, he expected these trends to worsen slightly but within the same magnitude, noting that demand has fallen drastically in the power sector due to the full lockdown this month, and gas powered plants were likely to have been shut down. Coal may also dip for April, while cement production will fall sharply as all construction activity came to a halt.
“The wider IIP will see a much bigger hit, as non-essential industries were completely closed in April. The core sectors account for about 40% of the IIP, but I’d say about 45% of all industries will show zero production,” “I would project a 30-40% drop in the IIP in April.”
Fellow economist D.K. Srivastava, policy advisor with Ernst and Young, added that the March core sector data also reflected the cut in capital expenditure by both state and central governments in order to make up for falling tax revenues. “This trend is bound to continue because both government and private demand for infrastructure investment has collapsed,” he said, adding that a revival in the core sector is unlikely until the government starts spending on infrastructure.
About ICI (Index of CORE INDUSTRY) The ICI is a production volume index prepared and released by the Office of the Economic Adviser (OEA), Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), Ministry of Commerce & Industry, GOI.
|
Weight of Core Industries in IIP
The weight of the different core sectors in the Index of Industrial Production are given in the table below.
Industry |
Weight |
Coal |
10.33 |
Electricity |
19.85 |
Crude oil |
8.98 |
Cement |
5.37 |
Natural gas |
6.88 |
Steel |
17.92 |
Refinery products |
28.04 |
Fertilisers |
2.63 |
Total |
100 |
Source: TH
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