India and Climate change

India was the fifth most affected country by climate change:

1. It was not shocking when Germanwatch, an environmental non-profit think tank, reported in 2018, that India was the fifth most affected country by climate change, globally.
2. In the last two years, the country has been hit by at least one extreme climate event every month.
3. According to the World Risk Index 2020, India is the fourth-most-at-risk country in South Asia, after Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
4. There is no doubt that climate change is real and its implications are disastrous.
5. Historically, internal migration in India occurred due to factors like ethnicity, kinship, work opportunities, or access to better healthcare and education.
6. More recently, climate disasters also contribute to displacement (involuntary and unplanned) and migration (voluntary and planned) in India.
7. In 2018 alone, nearly 7 million Indians were either displaced or have migrated due to climate-induced distress.

• One of the major areas that will be extremely vulnerable to climate change in the future is South Asia.
• India especially will be vulnerable to climate change due to its diverse terrain, rapid use of natural resources due to the current trend of precipitous urbanisation, industrialisation and economic growth.
• Water and air quality are worsening each day due to environmental pollution.
• Those that are especially susceptible to climate change are the country’s coastal ecosystems, biodiversity and agricultural productivity.
• The natural disasters’ increasing frequency and intensity are causing negative effects to the already struggling Indian economy.
• The adverse effects of such disasters range from poverty, vulnerability to diseases, loss of income and livelihoods.
• According to the World Bank, an increase of 2°C in the world’s average temperature in the next few decades will only make India’s monsoon more unpredictable.
• The changing rain patterns in India are predicted to leave many areas flooded and others without water scarcity.
• More than 60% of India’s agriculture is dependent on rain and the majority of the population are dependent on the agriculture sector for survival. This makes India more vulnerable to climate change.
• It is estimated that by the 2050s, with a temperature increase of 2-2.5°C, water in the river basins of Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra will be reduced. This may threaten the food security of about 63 million people.
• Poor will be more vulnerable to climate change since many of them are dependent on the rain-dependent agriculture.
• An increase of 2°C by the 2040s is going to affect crop production and will reduce the crop output by 12%, requiring more imports to meet the domestic demands.
• The melting glaciers and loss of snow can pose a risk to reliable water resources in India.
• Main rivers like Ganges, Indus, and Brahmaputra mostly depend on snow and glacial meltwater. This makes them vulnerable to global warming.
• Climate change can further increase the risk of flooding of low areas and threatens agriculture.
• Intensity of cyclone to increase
• Sea surge height may increase to 7.46 metres
• Sea level rise will be higher than global average
• Sunderbans and Darjeeling hill to have more rain
• The Indian Himalayan region:-
  • The Himalayas, which represent about 16.2 per cent of the total area of the country, are not only a key watershed of India but also play a crucial role in the monsoon system. Climate change impacts on the mountain range can affect the entire sub-continent
  • The mean temperature of the Himalayas has gone up by 0.6°C in the past 30 years; the frequency of warmer days is also increasing
  • The northeastern states of India, particularly parts of Assam and Manipur, are vulnerable
  • Flash flood due to glacial lake outbursts may lead to landslides and affect large-scale food security
  • Himalayan glaciers melting faster than others elsewhere in the world
  • Productivity of apple has decreased by 2-3% over the past few years. This will go down further
  • Projected increase in intensity of rainy days is 2-12% in the Himalayan region

India’s Efforts to Counter Climate Change

• India is the world’s third largest economy and fifth largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions. India’s emissions increased 65% between 1990 and 2005 and are projected to grow another 70% by 2020.
• By other measures, India’s emissions are low compared to those of other major economies. India accounts for only 2% of cumulative energy-related emissions since 1850. On a per capita basis, India’s emissions are 70% below the world average and 93% below those of the United States.
• India is also at the frontlines of facing the impacts of climate change. Shifting rainfall patterns, recurring floods, stronger cyclones and droughts or soil erosion are exacerbating the challenge of poverty eradication and necessitate the allocation of scarce national resources for preventing loss of human life.
• Despite resource constraints, India is undertaking ambitious actions to undertake adaptation and mitigation actions, including thorough lowering of the energy intensity of our economic growth, increasing energy efficiency across sectors and making greater use of renewable.
• India has doubled the Clean Energy Cess on coal, which very few countries have, and the Clean Energy Fund already has over 3 billion US dollars to be used for promoting clean technologies India’s National Solar Mission is being scaled up five-fold from 20,000 megawatts to 100,000 megawatts.
• This will mean an additional investment of 100 billion dollars and savings of about 165 million tonnes of CO2 emissions per year.
• India is releasing 6 billion US dollars in one go for intensive afforestation which will result in more carbon sinks.
• India has allocated about 200 million US dollars for the ‘National Adaptation Fund’, setting-up of Ultra Mega Solar Projects, Ultra-Modern Super Critical Coal Based Thermal Power Technology, and the development of Solar Parks on canals.
• Another initiative is “100 Smart Cities’ with integrated policies for adaptation and mitigation to reduce the vulnerability and exposure of urban areas to climate change and also to improve their energy efficiency for which 1.2 billion US dollars have been allocated. India has put in place stringent norms for the cement industry.
• Our Action Plan for cleaning one of the longest rivers in the world, River Ganga will bring multiple benefits of pollution reduction and climate adaptation. We have also taken initiatives for protecting coastal, Himalayan, and forest areas.
• India has initiated preparations to develop a National Air Quality Index and have launched a National Air Quality Scheme. Setting-up of Ultra Mega Solar Projects in Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Ladakh to promote renewable energy.

• As a part of the NAPCC, the Indian government had launched 8 missions in focused areas. They are:
  • National Solar Mission
    • The NAPCC aims to promote the development and use of solar energy for power generation and other uses with the ultimate objective of making solar competitive with fossil-based energy options.
    • The plan includes: specific goals for increasing use of solar thermal technologies in urban areas, industry, and commercial establishments; a goal of increasing production of photovoltaic to 1000 MW/year; and a goal of deploying at least 1000 MW of solar thermal power generation.
    • Other objectives include the establishment of a solar research centre, increased international collaboration on technology development, strengthening of domestic manufacturing capacity, and increased government funding and international support.
  • National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency: Initiatives based on increasing the energy use efficiency were expected to yield savings of 10,000 MW by 2012. Building on the Energy Conservation Act 2001, the plan recommends:
    • Mandating specific energy consumption decreases in large energy-consuming industries, with a system for companies to trade energy-savings certificates;
    • Energy incentives, including reduced taxes on energy-efficient appliances; and
    • Financing for public-private partnerships to reduce energy consumption through demand-side management programs in the municipal, buildings and agricultural sectors.
  • National Mission on Sustainable Habitat: To promote energy efficiency as a core component of urban planning, the plan calls for:
    • Extending the existing Energy Conservation Building Code;
    • A greater emphasis on urban waste management and recycling, including power production from waste;
    • Strengthening the enforcement of automotive fuel economy standards and using pricing measures to encourage the purchase of efficient vehicles;
    • Incentives for the use of public transportation.
  • National Water Mission: With water scarcity projected to worsen as a result of climate change, the plan sets a goal of a 20% improvement in water use efficiency through pricing and other measures.
  • National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem: The plan aims to conserve biodiversity, forest cover, and other ecological values in the Himalayan region, where glaciers that are a major source of India’s water supply are projected to recede as a result of global warming.
  • National Mission for a “Green India” Goals: Goals include the afforestation of 6 million hectares of degraded forest lands and expanding forest cover from 23% to 33% of India’s territory.
  • National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture: The plan aims to support climate adaptation in agriculture through the development of climate-resilient crops, expansion of weather insurance mechanisms, and agricultural practices.
  • National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change: To gain a better understanding of climate science, impacts and challenges, the plan envisions a new Climate Science Research Fund, improved climate modelling, and increased international collaboration. It also encourages private sector initiatives to develop adaptation and mitigation technologies through venture capital funds.

• International Solar Alliance (ISA)
• State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC): State governments have drafted climate strategies aligned with the eight National Missions under the NAPCC. The strategies focus on issues ranging from climate mitigation, energy efficiency, and resource conservation to climate adaptation.
• FAME Scheme for E-mobility: Union Government in April 2015 launched Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric vehicles (FAME) – India Scheme with an aim to boost sales of eco-friendly vehicles in the country. It is a part of the National Mission for Electric Mobility.
• Atal Mission for Rejuvenation & Urban Transformation (AMRUT) for Smart Cities.
• Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: The scheme provides LPG connections to five crore below-poverty-line beneficiaries. The connections are given in the name of women beneficiaries to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels and conventional fuel like cow dung for cooking food, thus reducing air pollution.
• UJALA scheme: The scheme was launched by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi in January 2015 with a target of replacing 77 crore incandescent lamps with LED bulbs. The usage of LED bulbs will not only result in reducing electricity bills but also help in environment protection.

India in the international forums on climate change:

• India is currently setting up voluntary targets in the international forums to commit itself to the mission to combat climate change. It is also playing a major role in climate change mitigation.
• India’s proactive role in mitigating climate change is due to the domestic compulsion of tackling issues like the need for poverty eradication, food and nutritional security, universalization of health and education, water security, sustainable energy, employment.
• India is of the opinion that the developing countries’ need for inclusive growth, sustainable development, poverty eradication and universal access to energy must be made the fundamental differentiation between them and the developed nations. Currently, the Conventions recognise the historical emissions of the developed nations as the basis for differentiation between the developed and developing nations.

Efforts taken at the international level to combat climate change

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) founded the IPCC to provide for a mechanism to study the effects of global warming at a governmental level.
• IPCC is a UN body that assesses the science related to climate change.
• It provides the policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks while also providing adaptation and mitigation options.
• It complements UNFCCC and vice versa.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):

• It came to force on 21st March 1994.
• The 195 countries that have ratified it are called the Parties to the Convention.
• The UNFCC is a Rio Convention, one of the three adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. The others include the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification.
• The Joint Liaison Group was established to ensure cooperation among the three Conventions.
• Currently, it also consists of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands.
• The ultimate aim of the Convention is to stabilize the greenhouse gas concentration “at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
• It also aims to achieve the said level within a specific period so that the ecosystem is allowed to adapt naturally to climate change while also ensuring food security and sustainable economic development.
• Following its establishment, the COP1 (first Conference of Parties) was held in Berlin, COP2 was held in Geneva and the COP3 was held in Kyoto to adopt the “Kyoto Protocol” that ensures the implementation of the UNFCCC’s objective.

Kyoto Protocol:

• Kyoto Protocols was adopted in Kyoto, Japan on 11th December 1997 and came to force on 16th February 2005
• Its signatories are committed towards the achievement of emission reduction targets.
• COP 7 held in Morocco in 2001 saw the adoption of the detailed rules for the implementation of the protocol. These are referred to as “Marrakesh Accords”.
• This protocol holds the developed countries accountable for the current high levels of GHG emissions into the atmosphere due to their role in the industrial revolution.
• Kyoto Mechanism, also known as Flexible Mechanism, is defined under the Kyoto Protocol to lower the overall cost of achieving the emission targets. It includes Emission Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation.
• In December 2012, the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. The changes made include:
• New commitments were made by Annex I Parties (developed nations and Economies in Transition) to be implemented between the period of 1st January 2013 and 31st December 2020.
• A revised list of GHG that is to be reported by the Parties during the second commitment period
• Amendments were made to update several articles of the Kyoto Protocol to be on par with the second commitment period.
• The Kyoto Protocol is a significant step towards the reduction of global emission regime that will allow the stabilisation of GHG emissions.

Paris Agreement:

• Signed in 2016, it is considered to be the world’s first comprehensive climate agreement.
• It aims to:
• Keep the global temperature well below 2°C above pre industrial times and endeavour to limit them even more to 1.5°C.
• Strengthen the nations’ ability to combat the adverse impacts of climate change.
• The Paris Accord calls for a reduction of the GHGs emitted due to human activities equal to that of the trees, soil and oceans so that they can be absorbed naturally.
• As per the Agreement, each country’s contribution towards cutting emission must be reviewed every 5 years.
• It also states that rich countries must help the poorer nations by providing them with “Climate finances” to make them shift towards renewable energy usage.
• The agreement is binding in some elements like reporting requirements. Other elements of the agreement are non-binding like the emission targets of the individual nations.
• The Paris Agreement necessitates all Parties to put forth their best efforts through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the future.
• This also includes the need for regular reporting emissions and implementation by the parties.
• India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) includes the reduction in the intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35% by 2030 from 2005 level. Additionally, it has pledged to increase the share of non-fossil fuel-based electricity by 40% by 2030. It has also agreed to enhance its forest cover, which will absorb 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2030.

REDD+

• Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) is a mechanism developed by Parties of the UNFCCC.
• It creates financial value for the carbon stored in forests to offer incentives for the developing nations to reduce emissions from forested lands and invest in low-carbon paths.
• The developing nations will receive results-based payments for results-based actions.
• The REDD+ goes beyond simply deforestation and forest degradation by including the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks.
• It is estimated that the financial flows for the GHG emission reduction from REDD+ could reach up to $30 billion per year.
• This improved North-South flow of funds can ensure a significant reduction of carbon emissions and the promotion of inclusive development. It could also improve biodiversity conservation and secure vital ecosystem services.
• Forests are a vital carbon sink and thus, it is vital to increase its resilience to climate change.

Responses: mitigation and adaptation

• Climate change impacts can be mitigated by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and by enhancing sinks that absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
• In order to limit global warming to less than 1.5 °C with a high likelihood of success, global greenhouse gas emissions needs to be net-zero by 2050, or by 2070 with a 2 °C target^.
• This requires far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry.
• Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C often describe reaching net negative emissions at some point.
• To make progress towards a goal of limiting warming to 2 °C, the United Nations Environment Programme estimates that, within the next decade, countries need to triple the amount of reductions they have committed to in their current Paris Agreements; an even greater level of reduction is required to meet the 1.5 °C goal.
• Although there is no single pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 °C (2.7 or 3.6 °F), most scenarios and strategies see a major increase in the use of renewable energy in combination with increased energy efficiency measures to generate the needed greenhouse gas reductions.
• To reduce pressures on ecosystems and enhance their carbon sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in agriculture and forestry, such as restoring natural ecosystems by reforestation.
• Other approaches to mitigating climate change entail a higher level of risk. Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C typically project the large-scale use of carbon dioxide removal methods over the 21st century.