Global Nuclear Order and Geopolitics

The Global Nuclear Order refers to the international system, agreements, norms, and structures that govern and regulate the use, possession, proliferation, and control of nuclear weapons and nuclear energy worldwide.

It encompasses a complex network of treaties, agreements, and norms that have evolved over time to manage the risks associated with nuclear weapons and promote nuclear stability, non-proliferation, disarmament, safety, and peaceful uses of nuclear technology.

About Global Nuclear Order (GNO)

• After Cuban Crisis: The Global Nuclear Order (GNO) was created after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. took a lead in this direction.
• Establishment of Hotline: It led to the establishment of the hotline in 1963 (a bilateral measure), to enable the leaders to communicate directly. The hotline (later upgraded into nuclear risk reduction centers) was followed by arms control negotiations.
• To Control Proliferation: In 1965, the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. initiated multilateral negotiations in Geneva on a treaty to curb the spread of nuclear weapons.
• Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): In 1968, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) opened for signature. However, India had chosen not to sign the NPT, and in 1974, conducted an underground peaceful nuclear explosive, or PNE.
• The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG): It was founded in response to the Indian nuclear test in May 1974 and first met in November 1975. It observes common guidelines for exporting nuclear and related dual-use materials, equipment, and technologies.
  • The London Club later transformed into the NSG, consisting of 48 countries today.

Significance of the Global Nuclear Order (GNO)

• Control Nuclear Weapons & its Proliferation: The taboo against nuclear weapons has been held since 1945. It helped to survive 75 years of the nuclear age without blowing itself up.
• Maintenance of Stability: Arms control negotiations led to parity in strategic capacities creating a sense of arms race stability, and provided crisis management stability.

Key components of the Global Nuclear Order?

The key components of the Global Nuclear Order are as follows:

1. Non-Proliferation- Efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to additional states.

2. Disarmament- Initiatives aimed at reducing and ultimately eliminating nuclear arsenals globally.

3. Nuclear Material Security- Measures to safeguard nuclear materials, facilities, and technologies from theft, sabotage, or unauthorized access.

4. Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy- Promotion of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes such as electricity generation, medicine, agriculture, and industry.

5. International Agreements and Treaties- Frameworks like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and others that establish norms, regulations, and obligations related to nuclear activities.

6. International Organizations and Agencies- Bodies like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that oversee nuclear activities, inspections, and promote nuclear safety and security worldwide.

What is the current status of Nuclear Weapons?

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the global nuclear arsenal is witnessing the following developments:

1) Modernization and Expansion- The 9 nuclear-armed states, including the United States, Russia, and China, continue to modernize and expand their nuclear arsenals. Other nuclear-armed countries are the UK, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.

2) Total Global Inventory- As of January 2023, the total global inventory of warheads is estimated at 12,512, with approximately 9,576 warheads held in military stockpiles for potential use.

3) Dominance of Russia and U.S.- Russia and the United States possess almost 90% of all nuclear weapons, with relatively stable sizes of their respective nuclear arsenals.

4) Arms Control Concerns- The suspension of the strategic stability dialogue and the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) has halted discussions for a follow-on treaty.

Changing Geopolitics From Bipolarity to Multipolarity: A New Era in Nuclear Politics

• Shift from Bipolarity to Multipolarity: The rise of China has introduced a new dimension to nuclear relations of the World.
• Changes in the U.S.-Russia Treaties: In 2002, the U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and in 2019, from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the only remaining agreement, New START Treaty is also facing uncertainty.

• New Nuclear Peer Rivals: The U.S. is facing two nuclear peer rivals (Russia and China). Also, the episode of the Ukraine war adds more uncertainty.
• Shifts in Technology: The 75-year-old nuclear technology on non-proliferation is undergoing shifts.
  • The U.S. showed biasness for Israel, when it went nuclear in the 1960s-70s and again, when China helped Pakistan with its nuclear programme in the 1980s.
  • Recently, the nuclear submarine AUKUS deal (Australia, U.S., U.K.) with Australia, a non-nuclear weapon state, is raising concerns in the NPT community.
• Changing Perspective:
  • South Korea: During the 1970s, South Korea began to actively consider a nuclear weapons programme, provoked by the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam. However, later South Korea was persuaded to join the NPT.
    • But recent opinion polls indicate 70% support for developing a national nuclear deterrent.
  • Japan: As a nuclear victim, Japan retains a strong anti-nuclear sentiment but there is a shift too, visible in Japan’s decision to double its defence spending over next five years.

What conventions regulate the Global Nuclear Order?

1) Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), 1968- It was put forward by the USA, UK and USSR. It was signed in 1968 and came into force in 1970. The treaty has 3 pillars:
(a) Non-proliferation- Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) pledge not to transfer nuclear weapons and technology and Non-nuclear Weapon States pledge not to acquire nuclear weapons;
(b) Disarmament- All parties to pursue good-faith negotiations on effective measures to control nuclear arms race, and to general and complete disarmament;
(c) Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy- The Treaty recognizes the right of all Parties to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
India considers the treaty discriminatory as it creates a club of ‘nuclear haves‘ and a larger group of ‘nuclear have-nots‘ by restricting the legal possession of nuclear weapons to those states that tested them before 1967. India hasn’t signed the treaty.

2) Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)- Seeks to ban all nuclear explosions for both civilian and military purposes. It prohibits nuclear testing, thus preventing further advancement of nuclear weapons capabilities.

3) Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, 2017- It prohibits and makes it illegal to possess, use, produce, transfer, acquire, stockpile or deploy nuclear weapons. States are also prohibited from using or threatening to use nuclear weapons and other nuclear explosive devices. It came into force in 2021.

4) Export Control Groupings- Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the Missile Technology Control Regimes (MTCR) are some of the nuclear export control groupings. These ensure that nuclear fuel export doesn’t result in nuclear weapons development.

5) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards Agreement- Governs the verification and inspection of nuclear facilities to ensure they are used for peaceful purposes and not for the development of nuclear weapons.

What is India’s position in the Global Nuclear Order?

1) Non-Signatory to NPT- India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which distinguishes it from many other nuclear-armed nations.

2) Nuclear Weapons Possession- India possesses nuclear weapons and conducted nuclear tests in the past, facing sanctions but later negotiating agreements for civilian nuclear cooperation.

3) Advocate for Global Disarmament- India advocates for global nuclear disarmament while seeking recognition as a responsible nuclear power.

4) Complex Position- India’s stance is complex due to its pursuit of civilian nuclear energy for development and maintaining a nuclear deterrence policy.

5) International Engagement- Despite not being a signatory to the NPT, India engages in international nuclear forums, emphasizing its non-proliferation track record and commitment to global security.

6) Nuclear Disarmament- India supports complete disarmament within a specified timeframe which distinguishes its stance from Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) which have an ambiguous stand regarding timeline for disarmament. India also insists that disarmament must be ‘non-discriminatory’ and pursued ‘on the basis of equality’ i.e., there must be no discriminatory provisions in favor of NWS as is the case with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

How GNO has performed?

• Nuclear taboo – It has been held since 1945 and humanity has survived 75 years of the nuclear age without blowing itself up.
• Successful non-proliferation – While more than 20 countries were predicted to possess nuclear weapons by the 1970s, (5 in 1968 – the U.S., U.S.S.R., U.K., France, and China), only 4 countries have since gone nuclear, i.e., India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan.
• Strategic stability – It is based on assured 2^nd strike capability, guaranteed by the enormous arsenals that both US and Russia had built up.
• This eliminated any incentive to strike 1^st ensuring deterrence stability.
• Arms control negotiations led to parity in strategic capacities creating a sense of arms race stability, and fail-safe communication links provided crisis management stability.
• Denuclearisation – Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan were denuclearised that hosted Soviet nuclear weapons and possessed some capabilities.
• Extension of NPT – In 1995, the NPT, originally concluded for 25 years, was extended into perpetuity.
• Active role of USA - Between 1977 to 1988, the U.S. actively subverted Taiwan’s nuclear weapons programme as it stepped up a normalisation of ties with China.
• During the 1970s, South Korea considered a nuclear weapons programme but France withdrew its offer to supply a reprocessing plant to South Korea under U.S. pressure.
• Limitations – Arms control did not end the US-USSR nuclear race.
  • In fact, their arsenals grew from 28,000 bombs in 1962 to over 65,000 bombs in the early 1980s.

Since the late 1980s, the U.S. and Soviet arsenals have declined sharply, to below 12,000 bombs today mostly due to the end of the Cold War rivalry and the breakup of the U.S.S.R.

What are the issues with the Global Nuclear Order?

The Global Nuclear Order faces several significant challenges and issues:

1) Proliferation- One of the most critical issues is the spread of nuclear weapons to additional countries. This creates concerns about regional stability, as more nuclear-armed states increase the risk of conflict and the potential for catastrophic consequences.
For instance, the AUKUS deal includes providing nuclear submarines to Australia (a non-nuclear state).

2) Arms Control and Disarmament- The existing arms control agreements, such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), face challenges in implementation and adherence. Additionally, there’s a lack of progress in further disarmament efforts by nuclear-armed states, which leads to concerns about the global disarmament agenda.

3) Modernization and Technology- Nuclear-armed states continue to modernize their arsenals, developing more advanced and potentially destabilizing technologies. Advancements in missile defense systems, hypersonic weapons, and other emerging technologies contribute to uncertainties in strategic stability.

4) Emerging Threats and Actors- Non-state actors or rogue states acquiring nuclear materials or technology pose significant risks. The potential for cyberattacks targeting nuclear facilities or command systems adds a new dimension of concern.

5) Geopolitical Tensions- Tensions between nuclear-armed states, such as those between the US, China, Russia, and other countries, create instability. Proxy conflicts, territorial disputes, and geopolitical rivalries heighten the risk of nuclear confrontation.
For instance, Russia de-ratifying CTBT; Withdrawal of USA and Russia from bilateral treaties.

6) Safety and Security- Ensuring the safety and security of nuclear materials, facilities, and technologies remains a persistent challenge. Accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons due to technical failures, human error, or terrorist actions is a significant concern.

What are the issues with the Global Nuclear Order in the context of India?

India’s position within the Global Nuclear Order presents specific challenges and concerns:

1) Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) status- India is not a signatory to the NPT, which creates complexities in its relationship with the global nuclear order. India’s nuclear program was developed independently, leading to its status as a nuclear-armed state outside the NPT framework.

2) Nuclear Arsenal Expansion- India continues to expand and modernize its nuclear arsenal. This expansion raises concerns about regional stability, especially given the long-standing tensions with Pakistan and the strategic rivalry with China.

3) Relations with Pakistan- The nuclear dynamics between India and Pakistan pose significant challenges. Both countries possess nuclear weapons, and historical animosities and frequent border disputes elevate the risk of a nuclear conflict, creating instability in South Asia.

4) China Factor- India’s nuclear policy is also shaped by its relations with China. As China continues to modernize its nuclear capabilities, India might feel compelled to bolster its own arsenal, leading to an arms race and heightened tensions in the region.

Maintaining stability in its volatile region, engaging in dialogue with Pakistan and China, and ensuring the safe and responsible management of its nuclear arsenal are crucial steps for India within the Global Nuclear Order. Additionally, India’s active participation in global non-proliferation initiatives and strengthening regional cooperation mechanisms can contribute to stability and security in South Asia.

What should be the way forward?

Creating a just, safe, and improved Global Nuclear Order involves a multifaceted approach that integrates various elements of diplomacy, technology, governance, and international cooperation. Here are some key steps that could contribute to achieving such a vision:

1) Disarmament and Reduction of Nuclear Weapons-
a. Encourage nuclear-armed states to commit to significant and verifiable reductions in their nuclear arsenals through bilateral or multilateral agreements.
b. Support dialogue and negotiations among nuclear-armed states to create a conducive environment for disarmament efforts.

2) Strengthening Non-Proliferation Efforts- Strengthen international efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons technology and materials.

3) Inclusive Dialogue and Multilateral Diplomacy- Encourage open and inclusive dialogue among all stakeholders, including nuclear-armed and non-nuclear-armed states, to address concerns and build trust.

4) Engagement with Emerging Technologies- Monitor and address potential risks associated with emerging technologies, such as cyber threats to nuclear facilities, to ensure a secure nuclear order.

5) Support for New Treaties and Agreements- Advocate for and support initiatives like the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) while engaging nuclear-armed states to participate in discussions toward a world without nuclear weapons.

6) Education and Public Awareness- Foster awareness and education regarding the risks and consequences of nuclear weapons, promoting public support for disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.