DAILY NEWS ANALYSIS

GS-II : International Relations Central Asia

18 November, 2020
5 Min Read

Fragile ceasefire: on Armenia–Azerbaijan clashes

Fragile ceasefire: on Armenia–Azerbaijan clashes

Context

The six-week-long war over Nagorno-Karabakh has come to a halt following a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but only after altering the balance of power in the region.

Background:

Before Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev went to war in late September, Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding villages connecting the enclave with mainland Armenia were controlled by either Armenian troops or their proxies.
Armenia had captured the mountainous region within Azerbaijan — populated by ethnic Armenians — in the earlier war in the 1990s.
But tensions continued even after the 1994 ceasefire.
When he launched the offensive, Mr. Aliyev, backed by Turkey, vowed to capture Nagorno-Karabakh.
Last week, when the ceasefire was announced, Azeri troops had captured several areas around Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia, including the strategic Shusha, a city just 16 km from Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital, Stepanakert.
If Armenia was seen as the victor in the 1991-94 war, Mr. Aliyev has claimed triumph this time.
On the other side, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is facing a political backlash.
- Yerevan has seen protests against the troops’ withdrawal, Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan has quit over the ceasefire and the country’s President has asked Mr. Pashinyan to resign and hold a snap election.

Role of Russia and Turkey

Even if the direct conflict was between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two bigger powers had high stakes — Russia and Turkey.
While Turkey strongly supported Azerbaijan, reportedly with armed drones and military advisers, Russia, which has a security agreement with Armenia, tried to remain neutral.
Vladimir Putin is the only signatory to the agreement besides the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
While Armenia was forced to pull back from several villages and Shusha, it avoided defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia would send 2,000 peacekeepers to protect the remaining Armenian population and patrol the corridor that links the enclave with the Armenian mainland.
While the ceasefire has reinforced Russia’s influence in the region, the war itself pointed to its declining clout in its backyard.
Turkey did not only help Azerbaijan fight a war against Moscow’s wishes but also made sure that the Azeris prevailed in the conflict.

Conclusion

So now, there is a triumphant Azerbaijan, a wounded Armenia, a cautious Russia and an ambitious Turkey, with a fragile truce over an unresolved dispute.
For peace to prevail, Armenia and Azerbaijan must find a lasting settlement to the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The ceasefire in 1994 did not resolve the conflict. And unlike 1994, when Russia was the only big power, now, the South Caucasus is open for contest between Russia and Turkey, which makes the crisis even more dangerous.

Source: TH

Join Our Telegram

Voice clone-AI

Pradhan Mantri Suryodaya Yojana

06 Feb, 24
SHARE

Recently, Prime Minister announced Pradhan Mantri Suryodaya Yojana under which 1 crore households will get rooftop solar power systems. India’s Status of Current Solar Capacity India currently stands at 4th place globally in solar power capacity. As per Ministry of New an

Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA)- NGO

06 Feb, 24
SHARE

The Foreign Contribution Regulation Act, 2010 (FCRA) registration of two prominent non-governmental organisations (NGOs) — Centre for Policy Research (CPR) and World Vision India (WVI) have been cancelled this month. What is FCRA? Key provisions of FCRA, 2010 Key aspects Description

Voice clone-AI

06 Feb, 24
SHARE

Voice clone fraud has been on the rise in India. AI voice cloning – It is the process of creating a synthetic replica of a person’s voice through machine learning and speech synthesis technology.It is called as voice deepfakesor audio deepfakes. Objective – To achieve a high level of na

Science communication- how to promote

06 Feb, 24
SHARE

Steps taken by India to promote Science Communication Publications and Information Directorate (PID) - An organisation under Council of Science and Industrial Research (CSIR) established in 1951 for publishing and disseminating scientific information in India. National science magazines- The PI

Universal Basic Income (UBI)- Analysis

05 Feb, 24
SHARE

Universal Basic Income (UBI) can strengthen welfare architecture and unlock the nation’s latent demographic potential. UBI - It is an income support mechanism typically intended to reach all or a very large portion of the population regardless of their earnings or employment status. Objective- To provide enough to co

Quick Links Testimonials FAQ

Crash Course

Regular Modules 2024

Mains

Optional

Fragile ceasefire: on Armenia–Azerbaijan clashes

Pradhan Mantri Suryodaya Yojana

Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA)- NGO

Voice clone-AI

Science communication- how to promote

Universal Basic Income (UBI)- Analysis

DNA

06 Feb,2024

GS-III

PT Pickups

Toppers

Search By Date

Top Editorials

UPSC Courses

Saarthi Mentorship Programme

Important Tags

Articles:Geography And Environment

Articles: History Culture Society

Articles: Governance & National Issues

Articles: IR & IO

Articles: Economic Development & Economic Issues

Articles: S&T Internal Security

Articles: Ethics & Others

Articles: Others

Newsletter Subscription

SMS Alerts

Important Links