Demography Of India

• In 2022, China will see an absolute population loss for the first time, and by 2023, when India's population reaches 1,428.63 million, it will have surpassed China's 1,425.67 million.

What Influences Population Change?

TFR: Total Fertility Rate

• In the past three decades, TFR has decreased for India.
• It decreased from 3.4 to 2 between 1992–1993 and 2019–21; the decline was particularly notable in rural areas.
• In 1992–1993, the typical Indian lady living in the countryside had one more kid than her urban counterpart (3.7 versus 2.7). In 2019–21, that deficit was cut in half (2.1 versus 1.6).
• "Replacement-level fertility" is defined as a TFR of 2.1.
• The TFR is the average number of births by women between the ages of 15 and 49 as determined by surveys for a specific time or year.

Fall in Mortality:

• In 1974, China's crude death rate (CDR) reached 9.5, followed by India's (9.8) in 1994, and both countries (7.3–7.4) in 2020.
• In 1950, the CDR for China was 23.2 and for India, it was 22.2.
• The CDR measures the death rate per 1,000 people annually.
• Mortality decreases with higher levels of education, vaccination campaigns, access to food and healthcare, as well as the provision of sanitary facilities and safe drinking water.

Life Expectancy at Birth:

• Life expectancy at birth increased from 43.7 to 78.1 years for China and from 41.7 to 70.1 years for India between 1950 and 2020.
• Population growth typically follows a decline in mortality. On the other hand, a fall in fertility lowers population growth, leading to absolute declines.

What are the trends' implications for China?

• The total fertility rate (TFR) in China was 1.3 births per woman, which was somewhat higher than the 1.2 in the 2010 and 2000 censuses but still well below the replacement rate of 2.1.
• Officially abolished in 2016 was China's one-child policy, which had been in place since 1980.
• However, the UN estimates a 113 million+ decline in population from the 2021 peak to 1.31 billion in 2050.
• A vicious cycle results when there are fewer individuals working to support dependents but an increase in the number of dependents, which is why China's population fall in prime working age is alarming.
• In 1987, the percentage of people between the ages of 20 and 59 crossed the 50% mark, and it reached its highest point in 2011 at 61.5%.
• By 2045, less than 50% of China's population will be of working age when the cycle turns around.
• Additionally, the population's average (median) age, which was 28.9 years in 2000 and 37.4 years in 2020, is predicted to increase to 50.7 years by 2050.

What steps has India made to control its population?

• In the 1950s, India became one of the first developing nations to establish a state-sponsored family planning programme.
• In 1952, a population policy committee was created.
• A Central Family Planning Board was established in 1956, with sterilising as its main objective.
• India's government unveiled its first national population policy in 1976.
• India's National Population Policy of 2000 aimed to stabilise its population.
• By 2045, the Policy hopes to have a steady population.
• One of its immediate goals is to provide integrated service delivery for fundamental reproductive and child health care and to address unmet needs for contraceptives, health care facilities, and manpower.
• An extensive, multi-round survey known as the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) was carried out in a representative sample of Indian households.

NFHS has two distinct objectives:

• to offer vital information on family welfare and health needed for policy and programme objectives.
• to inform people about significant new health and family welfare challenges.
• The Ministry of Education established a Population Education Program with effect from 1980 after realising the potential of education in addressing the issues caused by the population growth rate.
• A central sector programme called the Population Education programme aims to integrate Population Education into the official educational system.
• It was created in conjunction with the United Nations Funds for Population Activities (UNFPA) and with the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's active participation.

Way Forward

• Given that the proportion of its working-age people in the total population just reached 50% in 2007 and will peak at 57% by the middle of the 2030s, India has a chance to benefit from the demographic dividend.
• However, creating worthwhile employment opportunities for a young population is a requirement for reaping the benefits of demographic dividend.
• Infrastructure that is appropriate, social welfare programmes that are supportive, and significant investments in high-quality education and healthcare are all necessary for preparation.
• The only way to guarantee that those already in the 25–64 age range be more productive and earn more money is for them to acquire the necessary skills.
• Women and girls urgently need new opportunities and skills that are appropriate for their involvement in a $3 trillion economy.