DAILY NEWS ANALYSIS

GS-II : Important reports Important reports

22 September, 2021
5 Min Read

ADB cuts India’s GDP growth forecast in 2021-22 to 10%

The Asian Development Bank has cut its forecast for India’s GDP growth in 2021-22 to 10%, from 11% projected earlier, with downside risks dominating the economic outlook. The ADB also sees rising input costs fuelling inflation to a faster 5.5% pace than the 5.2% previously estimated.
While the COVID-19 second wave had disrupted the recovery since the ADB’s April forecast for 11% growth, the Bank expects the economy to ‘rebound strongly in the remaining three quarters and grow by 10% in the full fiscal year before moderating to 7.5%’ in 2022-23.
Still, the risks to the outlook tilt to the downside and depend mainly on the evolution of the pandemic, the ADB’s director of macroeconomic research Abdul Abiad told The Hindu.
“The primary risks are centred around the pandemic,” said Dr. Abiad. “Until we get to the point that we have really widespread vaccination, countries still are at risk of renewed outbreaks as the Delta variant is much more infectious. So the main risk weighing on the outlook is if vaccination hasn’t progressed widely, the health system gets strained and the government needs to put restrictions on mobility again,” he explained.
That the second wave accelerated very rapidly but also declined very rapidly, allowing the economy to reopen was another key factor behind ADB’s assessment, and was backed by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings that had ‘switched to highly positive for India’, he pointed out.
“Because consumption will recover only gradually, government spending and exports will contribute more to this year’s growth than they did in the previous fiscal year,” the ADB said in an update to its Asian Development Outlook for 2021, emphasising that the healthy trend in export orders suggested that ‘strong external demand’ had helped cushion the impact of the second wave on the economy.
Blaming the uptick in India’s inflation on rising global oil prices and higher duties on gasoline and diesel fuel, along with double-digit consumer price inflation for pulses and vegetable oil, the ADB said a deficient monsoon could augur further inflationary pressure.
“Rising prices for oil and other commodities will further increase input and transportation costs for producers, which they will pass on to consumers. These push factors and the second-round effects of persistently high headline inflation from last year will keep core inflation elevated,” it warned.

Source: PIB

Join Our Telegram

Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a and MASS EXTINCTION

Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a and MASS EXTINCTION

25 Dec, 24
SHARE

Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a from the Paris Basin (Environment) Paper-3 PMP OAE 1a refers to a period during the Cretaceous Period (145 million years ago and ended 66 million years ago) when Earth's oceans became depleted of oxygen, causing a significant disruption in marine life. Cause: The event is believed to have been

Viksit Panchayat Karmayogi (Good governance)

26 Dec, 24
SHARE

Viksit Panchayat Karmayogi (Good governance) Governance GS PAPER-2 PMP Dr. Jitendra Singh launched the ‘Viksit Panchayat Karmayogi’ initiative on Good Governance Day, celebrated to mark the 100th birth anniversary of former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The initiative, which is part of the broader ‘Prashasan Gaon

Major programmes to control Air Pollution

23 Dec, 24
SHARE

Major programmes to control Air Pollution National Clean Air Programme? It was launched by the Ministry of Environment, Forests, and Climate Change (MoEFCC) in January 2019. It is the first-ever effort in the country to frame a national framework for air quality management with a time-bound reduction target. The

Air pollution and Air quality Measures in India

21 Dec, 24
SHARE

Air pollution and Air quality Measures in India (Environment) GS Paper-3 P-M-P Air pollution may be defined as the presence of any solid, liquid or gaseous substance including noise and radioactive radiation in the atmosphere in such concentration that may be directly and/or indirectly injurious to humans or other l

Geopolitical Significance of Ports

20 Dec, 24
SHARE

Geopolitical Significance of Ports (IR) Act as Geopolitical Assets: Ports enhance the projection of strategic reach, which helps strengthen the country’s control over important sea and energy supply routes. E.g. Indian Navy’s staging base at Agalega Islands will enable marine patrols

DNA

26 Dec,2024

Quick Links Testimonials FAQ

Crash Course

Regular Modules 2024

Mains

Optional

ADB cuts India’s GDP growth forecast in 2021-22 to 10%

ADB cuts India’s GDP growth forecast in 2021-22 to 10%

Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a and MASS EXTINCTION

Viksit Panchayat Karmayogi (Good governance)

Major programmes to control Air Pollution

Air pollution and Air quality Measures in India

Geopolitical Significance of Ports

DNA

26 Dec,2024

GS-I

GS-II

GS-III

PT Pickups

Toppers

Search By Date

Top Editorials

UPSC Courses

Saarthi Mentorship Programme

Important Tags

Articles:Geography And Environment

Articles: History Culture Society

Articles: Governance & National Issues

Articles: IR & IO

Articles: Economic Development & Economic Issues

Articles: S&T Internal Security

Articles: Ethics & Others

Articles: Others

Newsletter Subscription

SMS Alerts

Important Links