28th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC- Dubai Summit

Climate change includes both global warming driven by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases and the resulting large-scale shifts in weather patterns. Though there have been previous periods of climatic change, since the mid-20th century humans have had an unprecedented impact on Earth’s climate system and caused change on a global scale.

Factors Affecting Climate Change

Natural Factors – affect the climate over a period of thousands to millions of years. Such as –

1. Continental Drift – have formed millions of years ago when the landmass began to drift apart due to plate displacement. This impacts climate change due to the change in the landmass’s physical features and position and the change in water bodies’ position like the change in the follow of ocean currents and winds.
2. Volcanism – Volcanic eruption emits gasses and dust particles that last for a longer period causing a partial block of the Sun rays thus leading to cooling of weathers and influencing weather patterns.
3. Changes in Earth’s Orbit – A slight change in the Earth’s orbit has an impact on the sunlight’s seasonal distribution reaching earth’s surface across the world. There are three types of orbital variations – variations in Earth’s eccentricity, variations in the tilt angle of the Earth’s axis of rotation and precession of Earth’s axis. These together can cause Milankovitch cycles, which have a huge impact on climate and are well-known for their connection to the glacial and interglacial periods.

Anthropogenic Factors – is mainly a human-caused increase in global surface temperature. Such as –

Greenhouse Gasses – these absorb heat radiation from the sun resulting in an increase in Global Temperature. GHGs mostly do not absorb solar radiation but absorb most of the infrared emitted by the Earth’s surface. Global warming begins with the greenhouse effect, which is caused by the interaction between incoming radiation from the sun and the atmosphere of Earth.

Atmospheric Aerosols – these can scatter and absorb solar and infrared radiation. Solar radiation scatters and cools the planet whereas aerosols on absorbing solar radiation increase the temperature of the air instead of allowing the sunlight to be absorbed by the Earth’s surface. Aerosols have a direct affect on climate change on absorption and reflection of solar radiation. Indirectly it can affect by modifying clouds formation and properties. It can even be transported thousands of kilometres away through winds and circulations in the atmosphere.

Shift in land-use pattern – Most of the forests and land covers are replaced by agricultural cropping, land grazing, or for Industrial or commercial usage. The clearing of forest cover increases solar energy absorption and the amount of moisture evaporated into the atmosphere.

The lower the albedo (reflectivity of an object in space), the more of the Sun’s radiation gets absorbed by the planet and the temperatures will rise. If the albedo is higher and the Earth is more reflective, more of the radiation is returned to space, leading to the cooling of the planet.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a series of reports that project significant increases in these impacts as warming continues to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) and beyond. Additional warming also increases the risk of triggering critical thresholds called tipping points.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations collectively agreed to keep warming “well under 2.0 °C (3.6 °F)” through mitigation efforts. However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about 2.8 °C (5.0 °F) by the end of the century.

A rise in atmospheric temperature:

• The greenhouse gases released due to human activities are increasing the temperature of the Earth.
• The last 6 years topped the list of hottest years ever recorded.
• The increase in temperature is the major cause of the current increase in heat-related deaths and illnesses, rise in sea levels and an increase in the intensity of natural disasters.
• The 20th century saw an increase in the Earth’s average temperature by 1°F. This is believed to be the fastest rise in a thousand years.
• Research estimates predict that if the GHGs are not reduced, the average surface temperature could increase to 3-5°F by the end of this century.

Change in landscapes:

• Increasing temperature and changing climate and weather patterns across the globe led to the shift of trees and plants towards Polar Regions and mountains.
• As the vegetation tries to adapt to climate change by moving towards colder regions, the animals that are dependent on them will be forced to follow them for survival. While some survive, many perish in the attempt.
• Other species like polar bears dependent on cold terrains will not have any habitat due to the melting of ice, causing a risk to their survival.
• Thus, the current hasty change in the landscape causes a considerable risk to the survival of many species, including the human population.

A risk to the ecosystem:

• An increase in the temperature across the globe is changing the weather and vegetation patterns, causing the species to migrate to cooler areas for survival.
• This poses a threat to the survival of numerous species. It is projected that by 2050, one-fourth of the Earth’s species may become extinct if the current trend continues.

Rising sea levels:

• An increase in the temperature of the Earth leads to a rise in sea level due to the thermal expansion (a condition wherein the warm water takes up more area than cooler water). The melting of glaciers adds to this problem.
• The population living in under-lying areas, islands and coasts are threatened by the rising sea levels.
• It erodes shorelines, damages properties and destroys ecosystems like mangroves and wetlands that protect coasts from storms.
• In the last 100 years, the sea level has risen to 4-8 inches and will continue to rise between 4 and 36 inches in the next 100 years.

Ocean Acidification:

• The increase in the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased the CO2 absorption in the ocean. This makes the ocean acidic.
• The increase in the acidification of the ocean can be harmful to many marine species like plankton, molluscs, etc. The corals are especially susceptible to this as they find it difficult to create and maintain the skeletal structures needed for their survival.

Increase in the risk of natural and manmade disasters:

• The moisture from land and water is rapidly evaporating due to the high atmospheric temperature.
• This causes drought. Those areas that are affected by drought are highly susceptible to the negative effects of flooding.
• As this current condition, the droughts may become more frequent and more severe. This may lead to distressing consequences for agriculture, water security, and health.
• Countries in Asia and Africa are already facing this phenomenon, with droughts becoming longer and more intense.
• The increased temperature is not only causing droughts but also increasing the cases of forest fires across the globe.
• Climate change is also causing increased and intensified hurricanes and tropical storms, causing a devastating impact on human societies and the environment.
• The cause of this is the rise in the ocean temperature as warm waters influence the energies of hurricanes and tropical storms energies.
• The other factors that cause intensified hurricane and tropical storms are rising sea levels, disappearing wetlands and increased coastal development.

Health issues:

• The high temperature across the globe can pose health risks and deaths.
• The increased heat waves caused by climate change have led to the deaths of many globally.
• For instance, in 2003, the extreme heat waves led to the death of more than 20,000 people in Europe and caused more than 1,500 deaths in India.
• Climate change increases the spreading of contagious diseases as the long-term warm weather allows disease-carrying insects, animals and microbes to survive longer.
• Disease and pests that were once confined to the tropics may find it habitable in the colder regions that were previously inhospitable.
• Currently, there is an increase in death due to extreme heat, natural disasters and diseases due to climate change.
• The World Health Organisation estimates that between 2030 and 2050, climate change may cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and extreme heat.

Economic impacts:

• It is estimated that if action is not taken to address the carbon emissions, climate change could cost about 5 to 20% of the annual global GDP.
• In contrast, the cost to lessen the most damaging effects of climate change is just 1% of the GDP.
• Climate change can alter shoreline habitats. This may lead to the need for relocation of ports and near-shore infrastructures and habitats, costing about millions of dollars.
• The increased hurricanes and other related natural disasters can bring forth extreme economic losses caused by damaged properties and infrastructures.
• Declining crop yields due to the lengthy droughts and high temperatures can lead to a risk of starvation of thousands of people.
• Coral reefs generate approximately $375 billion each year in goods and services. Their very survival is currently under threat.

Agriculture productivity and food security:

• The crop cultivation is dependent on solar radiation, favourable temperature and precipitation.
• Hence, agriculture has always been dependent on climate patterns.
• The current climate change
• has affected agricultural productivity, food supply and food security.
• These effects are biophysical, ecological and economic.
• They resulted in:
• Climate and agricultural zones are moving towards poles
• There is a change in the agricultural production pattern due to increased atmospheric temperature
• Agricultural productivity has increased due to the rise in CO2 in the atmosphere.
• Unpredictable precipitation patterns
• The vulnerability of the landless and the poor has increased.

India was the fifth most affected country by climate change: It was not shocking when Germanwatch, an environmental non-profit think tank, reported in 2018, that India was the fifth most affected country by climate change, globally. In the last two years, the country has been hit by at least one extreme climate event every month. According to the World Risk Index 2020, India is the fourth-most-at-risk country in South Asia, after Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is no doubt that climate change is real and its implications are disastrous. Historically, internal migration in India occurred due to factors like ethnicity, kinship, work opportunities, or access to better healthcare and education. More recently, climate disasters also contribute to displacement (involuntary and unplanned) and migration (voluntary and planned) in India. In 2018 alone, nearly 7 million Indians were either displaced or have migrated due to climate-induced distress.

COP (Conference of Parties):

• COPs are convened under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a multilateral treaty adopted in 1992.
• It takes place every year, and is the world’s only multilateral decision-making forum on climate change with almost complete membership of every country in the world.
• Every COP is hosted in a different region based on a rotational schedule between the five United Nations regional groups:
  • The African Group
  • The Asia-Pacific Group
  • The Eastern Europe Group
  • The Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC);
  • The Western European and Others Group (WEOG)

• India had hosted one of these conferences — COP8, way back in 2002.

Achievement of COP:

• Kyoto Protocol (1997): COP summit laid the Kyoto Protocol aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat global warming by setting binding targets for industrialized countries to limit their emissions
• Paris Agreement: It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015 to edge the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

COP28 Climate Summit Different zones:

• Blue Zones: All of the official sessions, meetings, side events and press conferences are taking place in the “blue zone”, the formal conference and negotiation space managed by UN Climate Change.
• Green Zone: The “green zone”, is a space for youth representatives, artists, businesses and other civil society actors to discuss ideas for a net-zero future in a more informal setting.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):

• Origin: Signed in 1992, at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development also known as the Earth Summit the UNFCCC) is the foundational treaty that has provided a basis for international climate negotiations
• Key Principle: Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR–RC)
  • It is a principle that acknowledges the different capabilities and differing responsibilities of individual countries in addressing climate change.

Secretariat: Bonn, Germany.

• The Convention has near universal membership (197 Parties) and is the parent treaty of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
• Institutional Structure:
  • Conference of the Parties (COP): It is the supreme body to regularly reviews, devise, agrees and implements climate policy.
  • COP President and Bureau: The office of the COP President normally rotates among the five United Nations regional groups. The President is usually the environment minister of his or her home country. Their role is to facilitate the work of the COP and promote agreements among Parties.
  • Subsidiary Bodies (SBs): They provide scientific and technological advice and assess how well the Convention is being implemented

Devastating weather events of 2023:

• Extreme heat in North Africa and Europe
• Wildfires in Canada and Hawaii
• Floods in India and Libya
• Drought in the Horn of Africa.
• Land and ocean temperatures increases
• Antarctic sea ice decreased

Highlights of the COP28?

Loss and Damage (L&D) Fund: COP28, member countries reached an agreement to operationalize the Loss and Damage (L&D) fund aimed at compensating countries grappling with climate change impacts.

The World Bank will be the "interim host" of the fund for four years, aligning with UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. All developing countries are eligible to apply, and every country is "invited" to contribute voluntarily. A specific percentage is earmarked for Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States.

Global Stocktake Text: The Global Stocktake (GST) is a periodic review mechanism established under the Paris Agreement in 2015.

The fifth iteration of the Global Stocktake (GST) text was released at COP28 and adopted with no objection.

The text proposes eight steps to keep the global temperature rise within the ambit of 1.5 degrees Celsius:

1. Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
2. Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power;
3. Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emissions energy systems, utilizing zero and low carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;
4. Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies, including such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, and low carbon hydrogen production, to enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems.
5. Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;
6. Accelerating and substantially reducing non-CO₂ emissions, including, in particular, methane emissions globally by 2030;
7. Accelerating emissions reductions from road transport through a range of pathways, including development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero and low emission vehicles;
8. Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible.

The fifth iteration text maintains continuity with COP26 in Glasgow, balancing global aspirations of countries like India with diverse energy needs. India argues that it needs to continue using coal to meet its developmental needs and emphasizes the importance of adhering to nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

Nearly 200 countries agreed to "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems" at the COP28.

The agreement is the first time countries have made this pledge. The deal aims to signal to policymakers and investors that the world is committed to breaking away from fossil fuels.

• • Developing and poor countries are expressing dissatisfaction with the latest draft of the Global Stocktake (GST) at COP28, calling for significant changes.
  • Several countries, including India, are extremely opposed to any mandate to cut methane emissions, mainly because one of the major sources happens to be agriculture and livestock.
    • Cutting methane emissions could involve tweaking agricultural patterns which could be extremely sensitive in a country like India.
    • Possibly in deference to the concerns of such countries, the agreement does not mention any targets for methane emission cuts for the year 2030, although a group of about 100 countries had made a voluntary commitment, in Glasgow in 2021, to reduce their methane emissions by 30% by 2030. This pledge is known as the Global Methane Pledge. However, India is not a part of the Global Methane Pledge.
  • Developing countries call on rich nations to achieve negative carbon emissions, not just reaching net zero by 2050. They emphasize principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR–RC) in combating climate change.
  • Developing countries argue that rich nations, having consumed over 80% of the global carbon budget, should allow developing nations their fair share of future emissions.

Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge: The Pledge stipulates that signatories commit to work together to triple the world’s installed renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030 and to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030.

The Global Cooling Pledge for COP 28: It includes 66 national government signatories committed to working together to reduce cooling-related emissions across all sectors by at least 68% globally relative to 2022 levels by 2050.

Climate Finance:The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that wealthy nations owe developing countries USD 500 billion in 2025 under the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance.

The NCQG was confirmed by developed countries under the Paris Agreement in 2015. The goal is to set a new collective quantified goal before 2025. The goal will start from a floor of USD 100 billion per year.

This includes USD 250 billion for mitigation, USD 100 billion for adaptation, and USD 150 billion for loss and damage. The figure is expected to increase to USD 1.55 trillion by 2030.

The current climate finance goal of USD 100 billion per year has not been met, and developing countries are facing debt distress. Experts call for reform of the global financial architecture to address structural issues and promote sustainable development.

Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA): The draft text on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) was introduced. It was established under the Paris Agreement to enhance climate change adaptation by increasing awareness of and funding towards countries’ adaptation needs in the context of the 1.5/2°C goal of the Paris Agreement.

• • The draft text addresses critical issues:
    • Climate-Induced Water Scarcity Reduction.
    • Climate-resilient food and Agriculture Production.
    • Strengthening Resilience Against Climate-Related Health Impacts.

Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy:

• • The declaration launched at COP28 aims to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050.
  • Endorsed by 22 national governments, the declaration calls for support from shareholders of international financial institutions. It encourages shareholders to advocate for the incorporation of nuclear energy in energy lending policies.

Powering Past Coal Alliance(PPCA): PPCA is a coalition of national and sub-national governments, businesses and organizations working to advance the transition from unabated coal power generation to clean energy. PPCA at COP28 welcomed new national and subnational governments, and called for cleaner energy alternatives.

Coal Transition Accelerator: France, in collaboration with various countries and organizations, introduced the Coal Transition Accelerator.

Objectives include knowledge-sharing, policy design, and financial support to facilitate just transitions from coal to clean energy. The initiative aims to leverage best practices and lessons learned for effective coal transition policies.

Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnership (CHAMP) for Climate Action: A total of 65 national governments signed CHAMP commitments to enhance cooperation, where applicable and appropriate, with subnational governments in the planning, financing, implementation, and monitoring of climate strategies.

Major Engagements of India in COP 28?

Green Credit Initiative: The Green Credit Initiative has been conceptualized as a mechanism to incentivize voluntary pro-planet actions, as an effective response to the challenge of climate change. It envisions the issue of Green Credits for plantations on waste/degraded lands and river catchment areas, to rejuvenate and revive natural ecosystems.

Phase II of the Leadership Group for Industry Transition (LeadIT 2.0): It will focus on inclusive & just industry transition, co-development and transfer of low-carbon technology, and financial support to emerging economies for industry transition.

Global River Cities Alliance (GRCA): It was launched at COP 28, led by the National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG) under the Ministry of Jal Shakti, Government of India.

• • GRCA highlights India's role in sustainable river-centric development and climate resilience.
  • This platform will facilitate knowledge exchange, river-city twinning, and dissemination of best practices.

Quad Climate Working Group (QCWG) on Localised Climate Action : The event focused on recognizing and amplifying the role of local communities, and regional governments in supporting sustainable lifestyles.

What are the Key Concerns?

• No Specific Timelines for Fossil Fuel Phase-out:
  • The agreement lacked a clear and urgent plan for fossil fuel phase-out, using vague language such as "transitioning away" without specific timelines or targets.
• No Specified Targets on Tripling of Global Renewable Energy:
  • The COP28 agreement calls upon countries to contribute to tripling of global installed capacity of renewable energy and doubling of annual improvements in energy efficiency.
  • Tripling is a global target, and it is not incumbent on every country to individually triple its current installed capacity. It is thus not clear how this tripling would be ensured.
• No Clear Mechanisms for Achieving Adaptation Goals:
  • Developing countries made it clear that the adaptation draft fell well below their expectations there is no mention of how these objectives are to be realized or the mechanisms that will fund these efforts.
• Lack of Accountability on Financial Commitments:
  • There is currently no established mechanism to hold governments and institutions accountable for fulfilling their climate financing commitments.
• Varying Interpretations on Climate Finance:
  • Data on climate finance flows are compiled using various methodologies and have varying interpretations.
  • Double counting of climate finance can occur when the same funds are reported by multiple parties, leading to an overestimation of the actual financial flows.
• Resistance over Phase-down of Coal:
  • There was a move to stipulate that no new coal-fired power plants could be opened without an in-built carbon capture and storage facility, but this was strongly resisted by India, China, South Africa, and other countries.
• Concerns over Methane Emission Cuts:
  • The agreement talks about “accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030.
  • Cutting methane emissions could involve tweaking agricultural patterns which could be extremely sensitive in a country like India.