Tropical cyclone

• Tropical cyclone, also called typhoon or hurricane, an intense circular storm that originates over warm tropical oceans and is characterized by low atmospheric pressure, high winds, and heavy rain.
• Drawing energy from the sea surface and maintaining its strength as long as it remains over warm water, a tropical cyclone generates winds that exceed 119 km (74 miles) per hour. In extreme cases winds may exceed 240 km (150 miles) per hour, and gusts may surpass 320 km (200 miles) per hour.
• Accompanying these strong winds are torrential rains and a devastating phenomenon known as the storm surge, an elevation of the sea surface that can reach 6 metres (20 feet) above normal levels.
• Such a combination of high winds and water makes cyclones a serious hazard for coastal areas in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Every year during the late summer months (July–September in the Northern Hemisphere and January–March in the Southern Hemisphere), cyclones strike regions as far apart as the Gulf Coast of North America, northwestern Australia, and eastern India and Bangladesh.

Different names of tropical cyclones

• Tropical cyclones are known by various names in different parts of the world. In the North Atlantic Ocean and the eastern North Pacific they are called hurricanes, and in the western North Pacific around the Philippines, Japan, and China the storms are referred to as typhoons.
• In the western South Pacific and Indian Ocean they are variously referred to as severe tropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, or simply cyclones.
• All these different names refer to the same type of storm.

Conditions for formation of tropical cyclones

1. The temperature of the surface layer of ocean water must be 26.5 °C (80 °F) or warmer, and this warm layer must be at least 50 metres (150 feet) deep.
2. A preexisting atmospheric circulation must be located near the surface warm layer.
3. The atmosphere must cool quickly enough with height to support the formation of deep convective clouds.
4. The middle atmosphere must be relatively humid at a height of about 5,000 metres (16,000 feet) above the surface.
5. The developing system must be at least 500 km (300 miles) away from the Equator.
6. The wind speed must change slowly with height through the troposphere—no more than 10 metres (33 feet) per second between the surface and an altitude of about 10,000 metres (33,000 feet).

Super cyclones

An extremely powerful cyclone; (Meteorology) a tropical cyclone with sustained wind speeds in excess of 130 knots (240 km per hour) in the region of the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, and Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Amphan-Super Cyclone

• Cyclone Amphan has now intensified into a super cyclonic storm on Monday and is likely to move across the northeast Bay of Bengal, and cross the West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts between Digha and the Hatia Island on May 20, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
• ‘Amphan’ (pronounced UM-PN) that had turned into an extremely severe cyclonic storm gathered more strength over the Bay of Bengal while moving slowly towards the coast. It has now intensified further into a super cyclonic storm likely to make landfall on Wednesday, the IMD has indicated.
• The IMD has warned that the cyclone could ravage east Medinipur, south and north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hooghly and Kolkata districts in West Bengal.
• Twenty-one years ago, in 1999, another super cyclonic storm had ravaged large parts of Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal. It had taken Odisha, a number of months to repair the extensive damage that the Super Cyclone had caused back then.
• The state is expected to face extensive damage in the storm that is likely to uproot communication and power poles. It said the Cyclone Amphan could also disrupt rail and road links in many places in Bengal and Odisha and inflict extensive damage to standing crops, plantations and orchards.

Tracking Amphan

1. Cyclone Amphan is likely to move north-northeastwards and rapidly across the northwest Bay of Bengal, and cross the West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts between Digha and the Hatia Island as a very severe super cyclonic storm.

2. This has raised the possibility of heavy rains and high-velocity winds in coastal Odisha and Bengal and the state governments have initiated the process of evacuating people from vulnerable areas.

3. Cyclone Amphan is likely to have a wind speed of up to 185 km per hour on Wednesday, the Union Home Ministry has said in its latest update.

4. Heavy rainfall warnings have been issued by the IMD for Gajapati, Puri, Ganjam, Jagatsinghpur, and Kendrapara. On Tuesday, the rainfall activity is likely to increase in Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajapur, Mayurbhanj, Khurja and Cuttack in Odisha.

5. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea till May 21, Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) P K Jena has said. The IMD has issued a warning to suspend all fishing activity in Bengal and Odisha till May 20.

6. The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has enhanced its strength to a total of 37 teams, with the addition of 20 more, to combat the dual challenge of Cyclone Amphan and the coronavirus pandemic, the chief of the federal contingency force said on Monday.

7. The Odisha government is in the process of evacuating people from low-lying areas in 12 districts including 6 coastal ones due to the approaching super cyclonic storm.

8. The impending cyclone has forced the Indian Railways to divert the route for its Bhubaneswar-New Delhi-Bhubaneswar AC Special trains running from Bhubaneswar between May 19 and 22.

9. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also discuss the super cyclonic storm in a high-level meeting on Monday to review the situation and preparedness.

A matter of relief: On the economic stimulus package

With the announcement of the final tranche of Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, the government tries to give a strong supply-side push by boosting the availability of capital on easy terms, keeping income and wage support schemes to the minimum, empowering constituencies ranging from farmers and workers to businesses, and finally, the most important, keep the damage to the fiscal as low as possible.

The fiscal impact of the ?20-lakh crore package is estimated by economists at between 2-3% of GDP and that includes drawers from provisions already made in the Budget for this fiscal.

The pillar on which the package rests as liquidity support so that businesses can crank up again and set the economic cycle back in motion.

Demand side-stimulus

• The option of a demand-side stimulus through a resort to deficit financing seems to be reserved for a future date if the infection does not subside or a second wave begins prompting another lockdown.
• The problem with this approach is that there is a desperate need for demand stimulus now.
• A strategy to drive consumption by, say, suspending GST for a couple of months or at least cutting rates temporarily, combined with a liquidity boost may have worked better under prevailing conditions.

The government has done well in increasing the budget for MGNREGA by two-thirds, adding another 40,000 crore.

With migrants now returning to their villages, MGNREGA can be leveraged to keep them occupied with meaningful work. The demand of States for higher borrowings limit has been granted but with clear reform milestones that they have to meet.

It remains to be seen if States are enthused to fall in line. The government has also used the opportunity to unleash some much-needed reforms in agriculture marketing, open up more sectors for private participation, enhance foreign direct investment in defence, corporatise the monolith Ordnance Factory Board and so on.

Way ahead

While it is impossible to satisfy all sections of society, especially in a pandemic situation, it has to be said that the government has taken a huge gamble by refusing to borrow and spend more on boosting demand. If the strategy of boosting supply works, it is fine. But if it does not, the government will be faced with a bigger problem down the line.

How far can weather impact Covid reproduction number?

A new study by Harvard University has estimated the impact of weather on transmission of Covid-19 infections and found a negative relationship between temperatures above 25°C and estimated reproduction number, with each degree Celsius associated with a 3.1% reduction in the reproduction number.

The study found that higher levels of relative humidity strengthen the negative effect of temperature above 25°C.

But the findings suggest that weather alone will not be enough to fully contain transmission, even though it may help with efforts to contain the pandemic and build response capacity.

The study, entitled ‘Weather Conditions and COVID-19 Transmission: Estimates and Projections’.

Reproduction Number

It found that would need a reduction of reproduction number by more than 70% to contain the risk of transmission, while that reduction factor rarely goes below 50% globally.

In the case of Delhi, the reduction in reproduction number due to weather is projected to vary between 47% and 16% till August; for Mumbai, between 43% and 23%; for Ahmedabad, between 43% and 26%; for Indore, between 36% and 8%.

CRW

• The study found significant positive effects for wind speed, precipitation, and diurnal temperature on reproduction number.
• The study shows how it is impacted by weather in each location, captured in the ‘Relative COVID-19 Risk due to Weather (CRW)’. CRW compares the relative changes in reproduction number for the disease due to weather factors, such as average and diurnal temperature, humidity, pressure, precipitation, snowfall, and sun hour.
• CRW scores only give relative risks due to weather, assuming all else is equal, across locations or within a location over time.
• A CRW of 0.5 thus reflects a 50% reduction in reproduction number, and a shift over a season in CRW from 1 to 0.7 in a given location points to a 30% reduction in reproduction number over that period due to weather, assuming everything else is constant.
• Although the study suggests that warmer and more humid times of the year, in some of the locations, may offer a modest reduction in reproduction number, its results show that CRW must go below 0.3 to contain the epidemic based on weather factors alone.
• However, the study also shows that CRW numbers rarely drop below 0.5, indicating that the upcoming changes in weather alone will not be enough to fully contain the transmission of Covid-19.

Public debt

• Article 292 of the Indian Constitution states that the Government of India can borrow amounts specified by the Parliament from time to time.
• Article 293 of the Indian Constitution mandates that the State Governments in India can borrow only from internal sources.
• Thus the Government of India incurs both external and internal debt, while State Governments incur only internal debt under Article 293.
• As per the recommendations of the 12th Finance Commission, access to external financing by the States for various projects is facilitated by the Central Government, which provides the sovereign guarantee for these borrowings.
• From April 1, 2005, all general category states borrow from multi-lateral and bilateral agencies ( World Bank, ADB etc.) on a back-to-back basis viz. the interest cost and the risk emanating from currency and exchange rate fluctuations are passed on to States.
• In the case of special category states ( North-eastern states, Himachal, Uttarakhand and J&K), external borrowings of state governments are given by the Union Government as 90 per cent loan and 10 per cent grant.

In India, total Central Government Liabilities constitutes the following three categories;

[i] Internal Debt.

[ii] External Debt.

[iii] Public Account Liabilities.

Public Debt in India includes only Internal and External Debt incurred by the Central Government.

Internal Debt includes liabilities incurred by resident units in the Indian economy to other resident units, while External Debt includes liabilities incurred by residents to non-residents.

The major instruments covered under Internal Debt are as follows:

Dated Securities: Primarily fixed coupon securities of short, medium and long term maturity which have a specified redemption date. These are the single-most important component of financing the fiscal deficit of the Central Government (around 91 % in 2010-11) with average maturity of around 10 years.

Treasury-Bills: Zero coupon securities that are issued at a discount and redeemed in face value at maturity. These are issued to address short term receipt-expenditure mismatches under the auction program of the Government. These are primarily issued in three tenors, 91,182 and 364 day.

14 Day Treasury Bills.

• Securities issued to International Financial Institutions: Securities issued to institutions viz. IMF, IBRD, IDA, ADB, IFAD etc. for India’s contributions to these institutions etc.
• Securities issued against ‘Small Savings’: All deposits under small savings schemes are credited to the National Small Savings Fund (NSSF). The balance in the NSSF (net of withdrawals) is invested in special Government securities.
• Market Stabilization Scheme (MSS) Bonds: Governed by a MoU between the GoI and the RBI, MSS was created to assist the RBI in managing its sterilization operations. GoI borrows under this scheme from the RBI, while proceeds from such borrowings are maintained in a separate cash account with the latter and is used only for redemption of T-bills /dated securities raised under this scheme.

Adjusted debt

• Adjusted debt indicates the debt amount after factoring in the impact of external debt at current change rate and netting out Market Stabilization Scheme and NSSF liabilities not used for financing Central Government deficit.
• While analyzing the general Government debt (consolidated debt for Central and State Governments), 14 days T-bills investment by States and Central loans to State Governments have also been netted out to avoid double accounting. However, this concept of adjusted debt is not reported in the quarterly reports.
• The Government of India has been publishing a number of documents detailing overall debt position of the country, consolidated data relating to public debt, debt management strategies of Central Government Debt, etc.
• These publications include an Annual Government Debt Status Paper (since 2010), Debt Management Strategy document (2015) and Handbook of Statistics on Central Government Debt (since 2013).
• It has now been decided to consolidate all these publications into ‘Status Paper on Government Debt’ Report to bring complete Government Debt and its Management related information at one place. The first such report was released on 21 October 2016.

ChAdOx1 nCoV-19

Context

A high-profile potential vaccine for COVID-19 being tested by researchers at Oxford University failed to protect vaccinated monkeys from being infected by the virus. However, the test animals appeared to be protected from pneumonia.

ChAdOx1 nCoV-19

• The vaccine candidate, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, being tested is a weakened form a common cold virus (adenovirus) that affects chimpanzees but has been neutered to prevent replication in humans.
• Reports of the candidate vaccine’s performance in monkeys (rhesus macaque) have prompted researchers to test the vaccine’s potency in humans.
• Its promise has also led to Indian vaccine manufacturer, the Pune-based Serum Institute announcing plans to manufacture four to five million doses by the end-May in India.

Green Nobel Prize

Prafulla Samantara

He is the Green Nobel Prize winner and environmental activist.

Green Nobel Prize

• The Green Nobel, also known as the Goldman Environmental Prize, is the gift awarded to six environmental activists every year.
• The six environmental activists are selected from the six geographical regions on the planet (Central and South America, North America, Island nations and Islands, Europe, Africa, and Asia).
• The award identifies environmental activists from each of these regions who risk their lives to protect their environment.
• The prizes are issued at the Goldman Environmental Foundation’s headquarters in San Francisco, California.

Founders of the Green Nobel

• The Goldman Environmental Prize was founded by philanthropists and civic leaders Richard and Rhoda Goldman in 1989.
• Together they formed the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund in 1951. The couple has donated over $680 million to numerous organizations in San Francisco like the Rhoda Goldman Plaza and the San Francisco Jewish Community Center.
• The Goldman Environmental Prize awarded six prizes every year worth $150,000 by 2010. The awards amounted to $200,000 as of 2019. By the time Richard Goldman passed away in 2010, they had awarded $13.2 million to environmental activists from over seventy nations.

Section 54 in the Disaster Management Act, 2005

Punishment for false warning.—Whoever makes or circulates a false alarm or warning as to disaster or its severity or magnitude, leading to panic, shall on conviction, be punishable with imprisonment which may extend to one year or with a fine.

Whoever makes or circulates a false alarm or warning as to disaster or its severity or magnitude, leading to panic, shall on conviction, be punishable with imprisonment which may extend to one year or with a fine.

Less invasive surfactant administration (LISA)

• A recent medical technique, known as less invasive surfactant administration (LISA), has been started at J.K. Lon Government Children’s Hospital here for treatment of lung disease or respiratory distress syndrome among premature babies.
• The procedure started initially for newborn children with a birth weight of less than 1,500 grams, has yielded encouraging results.
• Most of the premature babies admitted to the hospital’s neonatal intensive care unit had the problem of less mature lungs, resulting in difficulty in breathing at the time of birth. They needed ventilatory support with surfactant administration via an endotracheal tube placed in an air pipe for treatment.
• The surfactant is administered via a thin feeding tube, instead of the endotracheal tube, which is immediately removed after the procedure, while the baby is on the CPAP machine.
• LISA technique had been found to be very helpful in minimising the side effects.
• LISA has been developed as a lung protective strategy for respiratory management and ventilation in view of mechanical ventilation causing damage to the preterm lungs of newborns.
• Infants considered suitable for LISA are those being managed with primary CPAP or high flow with the evidence of increasing respiratory distress and with a rising oxygen requirement.

Wayanad's giant jackfruit enters the Guinness record

A massive jackfruit, weighing over 52 kg and 117 cm long, is eyeing to enter the Guinness record book. The fruit was found in a private plantation at Kappattumula in nearby Mananthavady and is likely to replace the existing Guinness record of the heaviest jackfruit globally.

Another giant jackfruit, weighing 51.500 kg, from Kollam, is also vying for the record books.

To date, the world's heaviest jackfruit according to Guinness came from India, the fruit weighed 42.72 kg and was 57.15-cm long with a circumference of 132.08 cm.

Colour-Coded Weather Warning-IMD

It is issued by the IMD whose objective is to alert people ahead of severe or hazardous weather which has the potential to cause damage, widespread disruption or danger to life.

Warnings are updated daily.

4 colour codes are:

1. Green (All is well): No advisory is issued.

2. Yellow (Be Aware): Yellow indicates severely bad weather spanning several days. It also suggests that the weather could change for the worse, causing disruption in day-to-day activities.

3. Orange/Amber (Be prepared): The orange alert is issued as a warning of extremely bad weather with the potential of disruption in commute with road and rail closures, and interruption of power supply.

4. Red (Take Action): When extremely bad weather conditions are certainly going to disrupt travel and power and have a significant risk to life, a red alert is issued.

These alerts are universal in nature and are also issued during floods, depending on the amount of water rising above land/in a river as a result of torrential rainfall.

For instance, when the water in a river is ‘above normal level, or between the ‘warning’ and ‘danger’ levels, a yellow alert is issued.