With China as backdrop, New Delhi’s Moscow watch

With China as backdrop, New Delhi’s Moscow watch

Context:

• India’s decision to pull out of Russia’s Kavkaz 2020 military exercises has led to questions about the possible impact of deteriorating India-China relations on the India-Russia partnership.
• While COVID-19 was cited as the official reason, the border tension with China is most likely to have prompted this decision.

Russia’s role in LAC issue:

• With both its close partners at conflict, Russia has been playing a quiet diplomatic role during the recent border clashes without actively taking sides.
• India’s Russia engagement has remained steady and Defence Minister visited Russia in June for the 75th Victory Day parade.
• There have been discussions around furthering the India-Russia defence relationship alongside the promise to accelerate certain supplies based on India’s requirements.
• Defence Minister’s latest visit coincided with the biannual Indo-Russian naval exercise, INDRA, in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, in the strategically crucial waters of the Indian Ocean.

Importance of Multilateral Forums:

• From substantive defence engagement to regional questions in Central Asia, Afghanistan and West Asia, a conversation with Russia remains an important element of Indian foreign policy.
• The multilateral forums are important as they foster continued India-Russia cooperation at the bilateral and multilateral levels.
• India and Russia, particularly since the 2018 Sochi informal summit have spent the past few years strengthening their partnership.
• India’s External Affairs Minister has noted that we live in a ‘curious world’ where one cannot view engagement with different parties as a ‘zero-sum game’.
• As a result, worsening India-China ties or a growing China-Russia relationship would not automatically mean a breakdown of the India-Russia strategic partnership.

Indian concerns:

• Both India and Russia recognise the value of having a diversified portfolio of ties.
• The combination of a changing regional order, closer Russia-China ties and India’s alignment with the United States and other like-minded countries to manage China’s rise has the potential to create hurdles for India-Russia cooperation in Asia.
• India would like to secure Russian support in this changing Asian regional order. However, Russia has seen China become its key partner as relations with the West have hit a new post-Cold War low since 2014.
• The U.S. policy towards Russia has further pushed it towards China. This has resulted in strengthening China’s rising power, to the detriment of both Indian and western interests.
• India on its part has sought to include Russia in its vision of the Indo-Pacific that does not see the region as ‘a strategy or as a club of limited members’.
• Russia has acknowledged that the Indo-Pacific does not include the aim of containment of another power, however, it has been critical of the American conception of the region that in its strategy classifies China as a revisionist power.

Way forward:

• A world split into two blocs would be detrimental to the interests of both India and Russia.
• The strategic space both provide to each other is critical. It highlights the need to insulate their bilateral relationship from the unpredictability of the international system.
• Although the evolving global order makes it difficult for India and Russia to pursue fully convergent policies, it does not prevent the bilateral relationship from retaining its relevance.
• India and Russia must pragmatically manage the seeming contradictions in their respective policies while taking a long-term view of the strategic partnership.