CLIMATE CHANGE AND COP 26

Context: Climate change is important for UPSC Prelims and GS Paper 3 and Essay Writing

Climate Change is a global emergency and is evident in various forms throughout the world. To protect the planet's proactive role from all the stakeholders is the need of the hour.

UNFCCC:

• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was signed in 1992 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development also known as the Earth Summit, the Rio Summit or the Rio Conference.
• India is among the select few countries to have hosted the COP of all three Rio conventions on climate change (UNFCCC), biodiversity (Convention on Biodiversity) and desertification (United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification).
• The UNFCCC entered into force on 21^st March 1994 and has been ratified by 197 countries.
• It is the parent treaty of the 2015 Paris Agreement. It is also the parent treaty of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
• The UNFCCC secretariat (UN Climate Change) is the United Nations entity tasked with supporting the global response to the threat of climate change. It is located in Bonn, Germany.

Objective:

• To achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous repercussions within a time frame so as to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally and enable sustainable development.

The Conference of the Parties (COP):

• COP is the apex decision-making authority of UNFCCC.

• The COP meets every year unless the Parties decide otherwise. The first COP meeting was held in Berlin, Germany in March 1995.
• The COP meets in Bonn, the seat of the secretariat unless a Party offers to host the session.
• The office of the COP President normally rotates among the five United Nations regional groups which are - Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Central and Eastern Europe and Western Europe and Others.
• The President is usually the environment minister of his or her home country. S/he is elected by acclamation immediately after the opening of a COP session.

Kyoto Protocol (COP 3; UNFCCC Summit 1997)

• The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 and came into force in 2005. It aimed at cutting GHG emissions across the developed world by about 5% by 2012 compared with 1990 levels. While India ratified the Protocol in 2002, USA never ratified it and Canada withdrew from it in 2012.
• Kyoto Protocol is based on the principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” and is the only global treaty with binding limits on GHG emissions.

Parties under the Kyoto Protocol

1. Annex 1: Developed countries like USA, UK and Russia + Economies in Transition (EIT) like Ukraine, Turkey, and some East European countries are a part of Annex 1 countries.
2. Annex 2: Developed countries are a part of Annex 2 (Annex 2 is a subset of Annex 1 countries). These countries are required to provide financial and technical support to EITs and developing countries to assist them in reducing their GHG emissions.
3. Annex B: Annex 1 countries with first or second round Kyoto GHG emissions targets come under Annex B. The first-round targets apply over 2008-12 and the second-round targets apply over 2013-20. Countries under Annex B have compulsory binding targets to reduce GHG emissions.
4. Non-Annex 1: Parties to the UNFCCC not listed under Annex 1 of the Convention come under this. These include mostly the low-income developing countries and have no binding emission reduction targets.
5. LDCs: These refer to the least-developed countries and have no binding GHG reduction targets.

• The Kyoto Protocol has two commitment periods: 2008-12 and 2013-20. The second commitment period was agreed on in 2012, known as Doha Amendment to the Protocol. As of January 2019, 124 states have accepted the Doha Amendment. Japan and Russia did not sign the second Kyoto term as it would impose restrictions on it not faced by its competitors like India and China.
• Each commitment period has its own set of binding GHG emission reduction targets for developed countries to achieve. Nations that miss their Kyoto target will have to incur a penalty like getting banned from participating in the ‘cap and trade’ program.

Flexible Market Mechanisms : Countries bound to the Kyoto targets can meet a part of their targets through three “market based mechanisms”.

1. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
2. Emission Trading/Cap and Trade
3. Joint Implementation 

Important UNFCCC Summits post-Kyoto

Loss and Damage

• The Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) on Loss and Damage (L&D) came into being in 2013 (COP 19). Under L&D, rich countries who have a historical responsibility for climate change are asked to be liable to the developing countries who are already facing climate change impacts.
• The Suva Expert Dialogue on Loss and Damage was held under the aegis of UNFCCC, which discussed risk assessment, risk transfer, risk reduction, and retention, and comprehensive risk management approach to extreme weather events and slow-onset climatic processes.

Carbon Markets under the Paris Agreement:

1. Market Mechanism 1: It sets up a Carbon Market which allows countries to sell any extra emission reductions {called as Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMO)} which they have achieved compared to their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) target.
   1. This is a voluntary direct bilateral cooperation between countries aiming to promote sustainable development.
2. Market Mechanism 2: The second mechanism will create a new international carbon market for the trading of emissions reduction created anywhere in the world by the public or the private sector.
   1. This new market is referred to as the “Sustainable Development Mechanism (SDM)” which seeks to replace the “Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)” of Kyoto Protocol.
   2. The delivery of “Overall Mitigation in Global Emissions (OMGE)” is a key requirement of SDM.

World solidarity needed against Climate Change

The climate crisis is a code red for humanity. World leaders actions or inactions will show their seriousness about addressing this planetary emergency.

The warning signs of climate change:

• Temperatures everywhere are reaching new highs;
• Biodiversity is reaching new lows;
• Oceans are warming, acidifying, and choking with plastic waste.
• Increase in forest fire all over the world like In Australia 2019-20
• Increasing incidences of cyclones and hurricanes
• Increasing heat waves like in Canada, Europe this year
• Melting Icecaps and glaciers at a faster rate
• Increasing Floods like Germany, Belgium, China saw worst flood this year
• Rise of pest and insect attack
• Impacting Monsoon

The Lancet just described climate change as the “defining narrative of human health” in the years to come — a crisis defined by widespread hunger, respiratory illness, deadly disasters and infectious disease outbreaks.

• Despite these alarm bells ringing at fever pitch, the latest UN reports that governments’ actions so far simply do not add up to what is needed.

Recent New Announcement at COP 26 Glasgow Summit

• A pledge to make a 30 percent cut in global methane emissions by 2030, and another to arrest and reverse deforestation by the same year announced at COP 26 Glasgow Summit.

However, unlike the agreement on HFC reduction, which was made under the Montreal Protocol, action on methane, which accounts for about 17 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, is not a structured or formal agreement.

• The pledge to arrest and reverse deforestation by 2030 was also made in the same manner. Over 100 countries have signed on to it, but it is not a formal agreement.

India has not signed up to either of the two pledges. One of the major sources of methane emissions happens to be agriculture and livestock, because of which it is a very sensitive subject in agriculture-dependent economies like India. Some other major emitters of methane, like Russia and China, too have not signed up. China and Russia are part of the deforestation pledge, though.

• Brazil has said that it was willing to advance its net-zero target year from 2060 to 2050. China promised to come out with a detailed roadmap for its commitment to peak its emissions in 2030 and also for its 2060 net-zero target. Israel announced a net-zero target for 2050.
• Financial commitments made by the host UK government which announced a 3-billion-pound commitment to fund green investments in developing countries, including US$ 1 billion specifically for projects in India under the UK-India Green Guarantee initiative.

India’s commitment

• India has increased its National Determined Contribution of 450giga watt non-fossil energy capacity to 500 gigawatts by 2030.
• India will fulfill 50 percent of its energy requirements from renewable energy sources by 2030.
•  Between now and 2030, India will reduce its total projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes and by 2030.
• India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by 45 per cent and achieve the target of net zero by 2070.

India also announced two other initiatives:

• Infrastructure for Resilient Island States (IRIS)
• the One Sun One World One Grid.

But these are individual promises of countries and not a result of negotiations.

• All countries need to realize that the old, carbon-burning model of development is a death sentence for our planet. There is a need for decarbonization now, across every sector in every country.
• Also, need to shift subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy, and tax pollution, not people. We need to put a price on carbon, and channel that towards resilient infrastructures and jobs. And we need to phase out coal — by 2030 in OECD countries and 2040 in all others. G20 leaders in particular need to take proactive steps to achieve 1.5° C target.
• Increasing numbers of governments have pledged to stop financing coal; private finance needs to do the same, urgently.

Way Forward

• Businesses need to reduce their climate impact, and fully and credibly align their operations and financial flows to a net-zero future. No more excuses; no more greenwashing. Investors must do the same. They should join front runners like the net-zero asset owners’ alliance.
• Individuals in every society need to make better, more responsible choices in what they eat, how they travel, and what they buy. And young people need to keep doing what they’re doing: demanding action from their leaders and keeping them accountable.
• Throughout, we need global solidarity to help all countries make this shift. Developing countries are grappling with debt and liquidity crises. They need support. Public and multilateral development banks must significantly increase their climate portfolios and intensify their efforts to help countries transition to net-zero, resilient economies.
• The developed world must urgently meet its commitment of at least $100 billion in annual climate finance for developing countries. Donors and multilateral development banks need to allocate at least half their climate finance towards adaptation and resilience.
• The UN was founded to build consensus for action against the greatest threats facing humanity. But rarely have we faced a crisis like this one – a truly existential crisis that, if not addressed, threatens not only us, but future generations.

Climate Change and COP 26 

Context: This topic is important for UPSC GS Paper3.

In spite of the risks it poses, the climate crisis is yet to get political resonance in India.

• The 26th United Nations Conference of Parties (COP) in Glasgow, Scotland may not have a significant outcome as yet in sight.
• Prior to the summit, there was a frantic attempt by leaders of western countries, particularly the United States and summit host the United Kingdom, to have most countries agree on a mid-century net-zero goal, or when emissions dip to near zero or are balanced out by taking out an equivalent from the atmosphere.
• This put China and India, both major greenhouse gas emitters, on the defensive, and they dug in their heels more strongly on issues such as climate equity and justice.
• Their argument, that the climate crisis is largely due to the West because of over a century of unmitigated carbon dioxide emissions, and so those countries must bear the lion’s share of reparations in the form of finance and access to clean technologies, is an old one, enshrined over the years in earlier COP deliberations.
• While China has indicated a 2060 net zero year, India surprisingly agreed to a net zero the year of 2070 as well as more initiatives by 2030 to move towards having a significantly larger share of its energy needs met by renewable energy.
• The target year 2070 is far from 2050, by when scientific consensus says, emissions must decline to zero for the earth to have a fighting chance to keep temperatures at manageable levels.
• So India, now the third highest emitter of carbon dioxide, giving itself a 50-year deadline will unlikely help prevent temperatures from rising beyond the danger mark.
• However, India has also indicated that for its 2030 goals, it needs a trillion dollars, by 2030, from developed countries. India, it must be remembered, is a $2 trillion economy and expects to be a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25 — though the novel coronavirus pandemic has made it unlikely — and close to $10 trillion by 2030.
• Developing countries were collectively promised, nearly a decade ago, $100 billion annually until 2020 and only a small fraction has been realised.
• Even the Glasgow summit has shown how hotly contested every dollar is. The conundrum of global warming is that irrespective of how irrefutable the evidence is, it is unlikely that elected representatives of developed countries will impose punitive taxation on their citizens for climate reparations.
• However, a quicker transition to renewable energy sources may be made by enabling greater sharing of technology and at fora where countries discuss tariff barriers that impede better, cleaner technology from being adopted faster than it should be.

Way Forward

In spite of the risks it poses, the climate crisis is yet to get political resonance in India. Unless it appears on electoral platforms, the push away from fossil fuel will not happen; and India might not have a realistic chance of adapting to disasters at a minimal cost.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND COP 26

Context: This topic is important for UPSE GS Paper 3 and Essay.

The race to tackle global warming

At the Glasgow summit, nearly 120 countries will seek consensus on rules to cut emissions, mechanisms to adapt to climate events and compensation for nations for loss & damage.

In Focus

• IPCC warned in August that the observed increase in global surface temperature showed unusual warming during the 1850-2020 period
• The gap between projected emissions cut against the actual need could lead to a rise in temperature by 2.7°C by 2100, says a UN report
• India, which has pledged to cut the emissions by 33-35% of GDP by 2030, has declared its pre-2020 performance on this metric achieved, at 24%,
• The COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, has raised expectations, just as the COP21 conference in Paris did six years ago, that there will be determined action by 2030 on the defining challenge before humanity.
• At the summit, major emitters of greenhouse gases, such as China, the U.S., the EU and India, and developing countries, including small island states, will try for consensus on rules to cut emissions, mechanisms to adapt to climate impacts and compensation for nation’s loss and damage.
• Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. returned to multilateral diplomacy, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), giving new life to the idea that advanced nations will transfer green technologies without hard intellectual property barriers and provide the agreed $100 billion funding for developing countries annually from 2020 to help reduce emissions. The funds will also help them adapt to extreme climate events such as intense storms, fires, droughts, floods and food deficits.

Climate impact

• The impact of the climate on the frequency and intensity of these events was documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its special report of 2018 on 1.5 degrees C warming, and the just-released assessment on the physical science behind a warming world. All the headline points in the latest report point to a narrowing window for the world to taper down emissions before the temperature rises beyond 2 degrees C.
• At Glasgow, the poorer half of the world, which did not contribute to the problem but faces disastrous impacts, will press the key question of equity.
•  Under the UNFCCC, all countries do not have the same responsibilities, given their respective levels of development. This principle of common but differentiated responsibilities guides the Paris Agreement.
• India, which has pledged to cut the emissions intensity of its growth by 33-35% of GDP from 2005 levels by 2030, has declared its pre-2020 performance on this metric achieved, at 24%, while it is working to fulfil other Paris promises — raising renewable energy capacity to make up a 40% share and expanding forest cover to create a 2.5 to 3 billion tonne carbon sink.
• More recently, it announced a scale-up of its renewable power plans to 450 GW by the end of the decade, and a national hydrogen policy to produce the chemical elements through green methods, aiding its deployment in industrial sectors as well as transport and aiming for export.

Science sets tempo

• The tempo for the Glasgow conference has been set by scientific reports, warning of continuing extreme human pressure on the climate system.
•  One IPCC report of August 2021 warned that the observed increase in global surface temperature showed unprecedented warming during the 1850-2020 period compared with reconstructed temperature data over a period of 2,000 years.
•  On the eve of the climate meeting, the UN Environment Programme issued its 12th Emissions Gap Report, comparing the updated emissions reduction pledges made by countries for 2030, with what is needed to keep the rise in global temperature to 1.5 degrees C or even 2 degrees C.
• That gap, between a projected emissions reduction of 7.5% for 2030 against the need for 30 to 55% cuts, and even taking into account the latest promises by countries, could lead to a rise in temperature by 2.7 degrees C by the end of the century.
• Moreover, G20 countries, accounting for nearly 80% of global emissions, are not on a clear course to achieving net zero (balancing out emissions) based on 2030 commitments.
• The net-zero concept remains contentious, because of the uncertainties surrounding long-term targets, but big countries such as China have set such a goal, while the EU as a bloc, Germany, the U.K., France, Canada and others have legal mandates.
• At COP26, the road to these targets is set to become the focus of debate. Article 6 of the Paris pact provides for the establishment of rules, modalities and procedures, which will enable countries, public and private entities to reduce emissions, and which will account for national pledges.
• The private sector sees the potential for a market mechanism for emissions credits, while critics see scope for juggled numbers that do not cut real emissions, and lead to deception through creative accounting.
• Another conference priority is to raise the ambition of high carbon countries, notably China, to phase out coal in energy production. This is a contentious issue, since coal is a reliable option for many, despite its contribution to high emissions and atmospheric pollution, and even the U.S., along with India, emphasises carbon capture technology — expensive and nascent at present — rather than a quick move to alternatives. Australia too bats for coal.

Power shortage

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a “rebound” in global coal use in 2021 spurred by COVID-19 recovery, and the recent power shortages worldwide have increased the attraction for coal. Solar and wind are not adequate to meet the surge.
• That setback, however, has not eased up the pressure from young climate activists on countries to move away from “dirty” coal. Their disinvestment campaign is hurting, as public and private sectors pull out their money. The militant campaigners, led by the face of the youth movement, Greta Thunberg, will be heard in Glasgow.
• Scientists too are disappointed with the progress. James Hansen, the former NASA researcher whose testimony to the U.S. Congress in 1988 on human-caused global warming proved greatly influential, has called COP26 a ‘gas bag season’ since politicians are not ready to talk about the gravity of scientific evidence.
• The IPCC says in its latest report, “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.” COP26 will be a stocktake of whether the political will is strong enough to stave off disaster.

Way Forward

A strong commitment to effective policy from world leaders is needed to tackle global warming. Easy technology transfer along with funding mechanisms from developed to developing countries, is the need of the hour. Developed countries also need to reduce their carbon emission, so that developing and least developed countries can become part of the carbon budget available to the world.